This is a $27.5K allowance race for 3yo’s+ going one mile. Post time is 5:45 pm EDT.
Yesterday turned out to be an interesting day that turned a profit. Over the past two days, our totals are 23:8-6-1
To date, that’s $148 bet, $182.70 returned: for a net of $34.70 - an roi of 23.45%
If you are interested in getting more daily evaluations, please email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.
On Tuesday, we are evaluating the 8th race at Will Rogers Downs. This is a $27.5K allowance race for 3yo’s+ going one mile.
# 9 Gato Guapo (5/2) has the best overall class and speed pursuant to SmartCap. However, he ships here from Sunland via TuP and as you have found out, those two west coast tracks are seemingly not conducive to either Will Rogers or Fonner.
#4 Vangilder (6/1) is co best last, has the Asmussen/Luzzi connection, and has been working solidly for this first race since September. His lifetime results are 9:3-2-0 for $151K or $16.8K per race.
#1 Miltontown (4/1) is stepping up in class and going for three in a row at WRD.
#7 Grade One (5/1) is second off the claim and second race at the track for Ray Ashford, gets our best last, near best overall class, and second-best speed of this group. In his last, the Highland Ice Stakes, he ran a solid fourth, just missing the board by two lengths. This Speightstown gelding will be on the lead and could be hard to shake.
My choice is #4 – Vangilder. In his last, The Louisiana Super Derby on September 7th, he just missed the win by 3/4 of a length and beaten by Rotation. Rotation, another Asmussen trainee, sat on the bench until March 19th and on his return, gave a solid effort to just miss at the wire by one half length. If Vangilder performs at the same level, it will play into his closing strength and he’ll have plenty of speed to close in to.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
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