Hope you have your wallet ready — first post time is 2:15 pm EDT.
Will Rogers Downs
Selections for April 27, 2020
Weather – 70’s at post time, light rain possible
Since this is a one mile race, we’ll look for three mitigating factors
Horses with the highest class rating per SmartCap
#4 Spirit Mission – 101
#8 Consumerconfidence – 114
#7 Mr. Midtown – 105
#5 Port Aggregate – Arnett/Goncalves 62%
#6 Touch ‘em Up – Broberg/Cabrera 25%
#7 Mr. Midtown - Young/Luzzi 25%
#9 Survey – Diodoro/Kennedy 32%
#10 Producer – Cordero-Lopez/Bermudez 19%
Jockeys in routes
Cabrera – 30%
Eikelberry – 30%
Goncalves – 22%
Kennedy – 21%
Luzzi – 18%
Triana – 14%
Wethey – 13%
#4 Spirit Mission will be a pass due to his first race today after shipping from TuP. Shippers from that track have not fared well at Will Rogers Downs and whereas Ry Eikleberry is a 30% router, he tends to win only when his horse is on the lead and he does not have to rate them too heavily. You will see this horse go to the lead and get passed at the turn or in the stretch. #6 Touch em’ Up is a Broberg/Cabrera combination and last Monday, they scored in the second and third races and will be a factor here. #7 Mr. Midtown has a race over the track where he set the pace in a $21K allowance and tired. The race prior, at Houston, he scorched similar, winning by seven. He did that in 1:39 flat and none of these have neared that time. The choice. One more to watch for is #5 Port Aggregate – the trainer is 60% in routes – 3:5
#3 Brew Casa is best on paper, yet I am skeptical of horses hitting their high numbers. This horse went from a 51-59-59-71. The last two times he has hit his high, he has bounced badly in the next race. I am going to go with #8 Nurse List who is 3:2-1-0 at WRD, is running in peak form now and will be the lone speed. #7 Apple County is worth a look – 3rd off a layoff and the previous two have been competitive. She is another lover of WRD going 4:1-1-1
SmartCap has #9 Our Vision as best last, best overall speed and class. However, he has been on the sidelines since September and trainer Young is only 5% after long layoffs. #5 To The Front has strong first out numbers, gets second Lasix and ships in from OP where his only race was a claiming, yet for the same $$. Improvement from his first, and only, start will get it done today.
#5 Stephen’s Answer appears to be much the best in this. He gets a turn back in distance after getting caught at the wire in his last, a one mile and a sixteenth. He will take a small drop in class and Ty Kennedy gets his second ride. #3 Seattle Thunder can prove a danger.
#8 Landry Kyle gets her second time at the track and if she runs back to her form from RP, she will get this one today. #9 Chiron Eclipse went off at 6/1 is her debut last out and showed some jump before tiring. Can threaten here.
Tightly contested race and normally would look to #1 Rocky Boy Indian; however, my not so favorite jockey is in the irons, he is second at the track from TuP and the rail is D-E-A-D as of last week. #7 Mega Honor has a win over the track, something that only the #10 has done and he has gone off form, set the pace last out before tiring and remains at the same level. #5 Smok’n Policy had a solid race last time, yet in ten tries, has not won at WRD.
#10 Ten Count Out drops to this level after facing much tougher last two, including her last where she was second in the betting and did not show much. Kentucky bred mare out of City Zip is lifetime 24:6-6-2 for $152K, an average of $6.3K per race, which is far superior to the others. Broberg/Cabrera connection will get the win in this.
#3 Blue Moonrise - Sticking with the SmartCap numbers along with Asmussen/Luzzi connection in this one. This Malibu Moon filly has had a solid campaign thus far this year scoring $55K/3:1-0-0.
#6 Three Chords has the best overall numbers and last two. Ships in from Oaklawn where she just missed from against tougher company. I’m not liking the 6% wins off a 1-2 month layoff, yet her numbers are tough to ignore. #2 Spring Steen may be the alternate with a race over the track and solid second numbers via SmartCap.
#4 Baysider has shown improvement in his last two and ships in from Laurel. The drop today to the level where he will be competitive is a plus. Trainer Gerald Brooks, 15% off the layoff and 30% in moving his horses down in class. A bullet 5f work on April 10th and a solid 4f in :48 on April 17th, shows he’s ready. Diodoro trainee #7 Ride To The Wire coming off a win just five days ago and facing similar. Hot jockey Justin Shepard (40% last ten days) keeps the mount.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.