This is a one mile, $20K optional claimer, on the turf for Florida bred three-year-olds and above, which are NWx or NW2. Expected post time is 3:23 pm EDT.
Yesterdays’ recap – our selection was a scratch, so the total thru yesterday is 11:4-3-1.
To date, that’s $76 bet, $96.10 returned: for a net of $20.10 - an roi of 26.45%.
Today, we will return to Gulfstream Park for the sixth race. This is a one mile, $20K optional claimer, on the turf for Florida bred three-year-olds and above, which are NWx or NW2.
Inputting Equibase speed and class numbers into SmartCap, we came up with #1 Wild Medagliad’oro (3/1) as best class, and #11 Ambassador Jim (10/1) as best speed. Ambassador Jim is the only entry in for a tag, so I will take a pass on him. Wild Medagliad’oro has cumulatively best last two, though he has not raced since May of last year and has only three workouts recorded since. It is doubtful he is in racing shape for today. #7 Azrael (7/2) is a close second for overall best class and speed, is a Chad Brown trainee and will take a lot of money, retains Luis Saez after the last, when he returned off the bench to score a $50K MSW win.
After returning yesterday and scoring four wins and two places, Irad Ortiz Jr’s #4 Rhythmia (6/1), will be bet heavily today as well. #5 Over The Channel (9/2) is also going to see some action at the windows due to his previous speed and this being his second race after a layoff.
Interestingly, Azrael does not have the breeding for the turf, yet he scored well in his first, and only, debut last out. However, his dam, was a solid mud horse and kudos to Chad Brown for recognizing his ability on the surface. So, that said, Azrael, whether dirt or turf, will be my choice.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.