Liam's Lucky Charm races at Tampa Bay Downs in January, 2020.
Liam's Lucky Charm races at Tampa Bay Downs in January, 2020.|@TampaBayDownsFL on Twitter
Thoroughbreds

SmartCap and RT head over to Tampa Bay Downs to analyze and pick the 8th, a $75K optional claiming race going five furlongs on turf

Post time is 4:00 EDT and the temp will be 89°

RT

Yesterdays’ recap - Southgate ended up coming in third in The Will Rogers Stakes yesterday, causing a loss. In the ninth, we had Quality Rocket who placed, paying $5.60. The total thru yesterday is 8:4-2-1.

For the $2/$4 bettor, that’s $12 bet yesterday with $11.20 returned, for a net loss of $.80

The total thus far is $58 bet, $70.70 returned, for a net of $12.70 - an roi of 21.9%

For you today, we are handicapping the 8th at Tampa Bay Downs. You were going to get more Will Rogers, due to familiarity, until the flash flood warnings for the area popped up.

Post time is 4:00 EDT and the temp will be 89°.

Race eight is a $75K optional claiming race going five furlongs on the turf. It is for 3yo’s NWx or NW2

Equibase gave this race a rating of 96 and only one horse has run that number and that is the #8 Summer Assault (2/1). The top four finishers from his last race have yet to return, so digging further in, the sixth-place finisher, Me And Mr. C, improved his next out from a 92 to a 95, and the seventh, Valiant Virtue, improved from a 90 to a 92. So, it would be wise to put the top two finishers (since Summer Assault ran third), in your virtual stable – Doc Boy and Mr. Kringle.

SmartCap shows Summer Assault as best overall class and speed as well as best last. If the pattern from its previous race runners holds up, we know he will show an improvement in this race, which is enough to win. However, there is one horse that should not be overlooked - #2 Baby Boomer (5/1). This Khozan gelding won its first and only race back on December 14th, and as you know, second time runners tend to show improvement in their next race. Stud jockey Samy Camacho begged off of #4 Cliffy (10/1) to ride him today, gets second time Lasix, recently worked three furlongs in :36, and whereas the one to beat is Summer Assault, the wager today is a place/show bet on him.

Happy Hunting!

About SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.

The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

Parameters…

  • You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

  • Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

  • We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

  • Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

  • We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

SmartCap analysis of the 8th at Tampa Bay Downs
SmartCap analysis of the 8th at Tampa Bay Downs RT
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