RT's post times are 4:15 pm and 6:15 pm EDT.
RT Report 4.21.20
Yesterday brought two winners and three loser exotic bets; a clear signal to stop making exotic wagers. $18 bets, a return of 20.60 – a $2.60 profit. The total through yesterday is 6:4-1-0.
For the $2/$4 bettor, that’s $46 bet, $59.50 in payoffs for a net $13.50 - a 29.35% roi.
Today, we’re going back to Will Rogers Downs for the $55K Will Rogers, (“I never met a man I didn’t like”) Stakes in the 5th, and the 9th race, a $22K allowance.
Weather today will be sunny and 78̊
The 5th race is the $55K Will Rogers Stakes, a one mile event for OK bred boys. Post time is slated for 4:15 pm EDT.
It doesn’t take a genius to ascertain who the class of the race is - #5 Southgate (2/1). He will more than likely go off at 1/9 by post time – and deservedly so. His last three races are against Equibase rated competition of 101/97/96. The next closest is the #3 Great Faces (5/2) at 88/86/74 and the #4 Khola (5/1), 80/72/96.
Now, do you play the #’s and go with Southgate who has lost by a combined 33.5 lengths in its last three races? In its last race, the top finishers had an increase in Equibase speed numbers, so this is an improvement spot for this Dixieland Band gelding. I will bet him under the auspices that I can get him at 1/1 or greater. Past that, I see no value and the bet will be a pass.
The 9th race is a $22K allowance for 3yo’s+ which are NWx or NW3 going six furlongs. Post time at 6:15 pm EDT.
#6 Kansas City Zip (2/1) as best overall speed, #2 Quality Rocket (5/1) has a near best overall speed along with best overall class.
Quality Rocket has cumulative best last two races
#7 Superior’s Boy (6/1) has best last with Kansas City Zip having next best
Superior’s Boy and Quality Rocket have the best next to last race
Kansas City Zip and Quality Road have best for here races back.
Looking at the pp’s, #5 Man U (9/2), Kansas City Zip, Quality Rocket and #3 Fearless Will (5/1) will jump to the front. I believe that Quality Rocket will draw off and not be caught. This is a horse that led in the Silver Goblin Stakes against Welder, a big time Oklahoma bred with a record of 32:21-4-4. Quality Rocket has a race over the track after a five month layoff and certainly has the speed to take this.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.