SmartCap heads to Will Rogers Downs in Claremore, OK and RT picks two horse races with data in-hand
Yesterday was a loss with the longshot Pleasecallmeback that I took a stab at. The total through yesterday is 4:2-1-0. For the $2/$4 bettor, that’s $28 bet, $39.30 in payoff, for a net $11.30 or a 40.36% roi.
For Monday, April 20, 2020, let’s head to Claremore, OK and Will Rogers Downs. There’s a small chance of rain; otherwise it’s going to be a glorious spring day with temps in the mid 70’s.
We’re going to tackle two races today. The first, which is the seventh race, is a $26.4K Allowance race for the distaff set whom are 3yos’+, OK bred, NWx or NW3. This will be contested at five and a half furlongs. The next will be another mile race and the ninth on the card. It’s the $55K Cinema Stakes for Okie bred girls which are three years old.
Included is the jockey statistics for the meet thus far. After the number of races I’ve watched, the ism that Pittsburg Phil put out - A good jockey, a good horse, a good bet, a poor jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet, a good horse, a moderate jockey, a moderate bet, is still true. Jockeys in routes are the critical piece.
Leaders at this distance are:
Cabrera – 38%
Eikelberry – 29%
Pusac – 20%
Kennedy – 19%
Goncalves and Triana – 18%.
Wethey and Tohill – 14%
This is merely a guideline because the meet is young. Last week, for example, Goncalves was 60%, so a couple of losses knocked his numbers down.
5:15 EDT 7th $24.6K Allowance
After employing Equibase numbers into SmartCap, I like to compile a list of horses that have raced at todays’ class (80), or above, over the past three outings.
#2 Bright Bling (4/1) 84-76-68
#3 Sweet Mary M (2/1) 73-86-76
#5 Between The Arches (10/1) 84-75-76
#6 Flirtie Rockette (30/1) 74-84-76
#7 Euromandy (12/1) 74-84-76
#8 Sandy Sangria (6/1) 84-95-83
#11 Keena (5/1) 84-78-76
Based on these numbers, it’s logical that we’d have Sandy Sangria as best numbers. In its second race back, this filly showed solid jump running into traffic, was steadied, came six wide and tired. The nest race, she showed early speed, came three wide and then ran out for fourth. Today, she gets a drop in class, a solid jockey. Sandy Sangria is 1-1 at WRD and 4:1-0-1 for the distance, has a 28% jockey for the distance, so she’s the one I’ll go with.
6:15 EDT 9th – The Cinema Stakes
On paper, SmartCap has #4 She’s All Wolfe (5/2) as best overall class and speed and best overall last two.
It also shows the She’s All Wolfe as best last with a 108/164 and best second with 115/176. Next best last is #1 Diamond N Spurs (4/1) with a 87/137 and second best last with a 76/127.
Checking some other stats, Diamond N Spurs is trained by Randy Morse and he’s 11% with horses off 2-6 months and She’s All Wolfe is trained by Donnie Von Hemel, whom is 25% in the same situation. Both horses have solid recent works, so they appear to be coming into this in good stead. One glaring difference is in its last race, Diamond N Spurs was beaten by a horse named Princesinha Julia who scored an Equibase figure of 80, then returned to hit a 56 in her next race. I’ll pass on her. I’m looking for more competition from the #2 Polly Tiz (7/2), who last out raced against Okie Queen who scored a 73 and then on April 15th, improved to an 86. This fillies Equibase speed numbers are in an up down pattern that signifies this to be an upward effort
43
70
65
43
66
Although stretching out for the first time, I’m looking for a 70-72 effort from her today.
Another entry of interest is the #7 The One For Fun (5/1) who has been racing at this distance the past five and finally graduating in her last race, a $22K MSW.
So, for betting in this race, I am taking third off the layoff, She’s All Wolfe, to win and place, then a trifecta
7-2/7-2-1/4, 7-2/4/7-2-1, 4/7-2/7-2-1
Happy Hunting!
