It’s supposed to be cool but mostly dry in both Oklahoma and Nebraska, so we’ve handicapped for fast dirt at both tracks.
The active tracks on this Tuesday are Will Rogers Downs and Fonner Park. It’s supposed to be cool but mostly dry in both Oklahoma and Nebraska, so we’ve handicapped for fast dirt at both tracks. Let’s go.
Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Dirt, 3 & Up
This maiden race drew a field of eight. 1-Box Set, who goes for trainer Boyd Caster, is an empty-your-pockets win play: he’s got very good pace and speed figures, and while he’s winless in six career starts, he comes into this race with the ultimate equipment change, as he was gelded last month. If he repeats any of his last three of four races, he has a good chance at winning this race; if he runs better, he will win by daylight -- and we think he will run better today. We will bet Box Set to win, and we will do so enthusiastically and aggressively. The bet: Will Rogers Downs, Race 8, $60 to win on 1-Box Set.
Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, Nebraska-bred Fillies & Mares 3 & Up
Eight go in this first-level allowance for state-bred females. We like a horse on the outside, 7-Miss Elise, who starts for trainer Dan Coughlin. She broke her maiden in her last start on March 24, at Fonner Park and at today’s distance, and we think she is going to win right back. Expect a stalking trip from her, and a move on the turn coming for home. We will bet her to win at 9/2. The bet: Fonner Park, Race 3, $30 to win on 7-Miss Elise.
Allowance, 1 mile, Dirt, 3 & Up
This is a first-level allowance race at a mile on the dirt that drew ten runners. It’s a good race to handicap. We like 8-Momma’s Baby Boy, a 6-year-old gelding who began his career in Southern California. He returned from a long layoff last out, running for the first time in nearly a year and a half, finishing second in an allowance at Sam Houston. If he improves off that effort, and we expect that he will, with today being his second race off that layoff, we think the rest of the field is running strictly for second money. A bonus is that he’s trained by Scott Young, who’s having an excellent Will Rogers meeting, and who been hot the past 10 days or so. We will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Will Rogers Downs, Race 9. $40 to win on 8-Momma’s Baby Boy.
Alllowance, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt, 3 & Up
This is a second-level allowance (non-winners of three other than maiden or claiming) for horses 3 and older. We’d expect this kind of race to draw a pretty salty field, and that is the case here, as some of the better runners on the grounds at Fonner Park will go to the post. There’s a field of nine.
1-Lovethatcause approaches our embodiment of handicapping perfection: he’s got superior speed figures, he has good tactical speed, he’s in good form, he’s got an advantageous inside post position, and he starts for a good trainer, David Anderson. If we thought we’d get his 5/2 morning line price, we might suggest betting several body parts; because we think his post-time odds will be shorter, we will be slightly less exuberant. We will still bet him to win, just not quite as aggressively. The bet: Fonner Park, Race 6, $50 to win on 1-Lovethatcause.
That’s all for today. Enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.