Horse Racing Sunday: Garrity picks cards at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Oaklawn Park

Once again today, it’s Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Oaklawn Park. There are no stakes races at any of them, but there are 28 races among them, and we have found a few plays that we like.

Rain came to Oaklawn yesterday, and the races there were run in the slop. The weather in Hot Springs is supposed to be dry today, and we’re expecting the track to dry out and be fast by post time of the first race. The forecast in Florida is iffy, especially for Tampa, but as of press time Sunday morning, conditions were fast and firm at all tracks, so that is how we’ve handicapped these races. But we will add a friendly reminder to check track conditions before every race, as the weather can change pretty quickly, especially this time of year.

With that out of the way, let’s go.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8, 3:51 pm ET

Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, 4 & Up

This second-level allowance/optional claimer drew a field of eleven. 6-Jais’s Solitude is the pick, and a strong one: this Eddie Kenneally trainee has been running in some very tough stakes races and should find the shallower waters of this race very much to his liking. He’s a closer, but we think there is enough pace in this field to set up his late charge. We will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 8, $40 to win on 6-Jais’s Solitude.

Gulfstream Park, Race 8, 4:41 pm ET

Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile, Turf, 3-Year-Olds

This maiden turf race for sophomore colts drew a full field of twelve. We are not overly impressed with the credentials of the obvious contenders, so we’re going with a longshot, 1-Alfatei. This colt’s race record is atrocious: he’s run twice, and finished far, far back in both starts. Based strictly on how he’s run so far, he’s a throw-out.

But there are several reasons that he intrigues us: he’s well-bred by top sire Pioneerof the Nile, out of a Bernardini mare; he was an expensive horse, selling for $475k at the September 2018 Keeneland yearling sale; and he’s making two big changes today, switching from dirt to turf and making his first start for new trainer Michael Pino.

Is Alfatei a sure thing? No. But we think he is worth a shot: he’s 30-1 on the morning line and may be even higher at post time. We’ll take a stab that he wakes up on grass and can hang some crooked numbers on the tote board. We will bet him to win and to place. The bets: Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $25 to win/$10 to place on 1-Alfatei.

Gulfstream Park, Race 10, 5:45 pm ET

Allowance/Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 miles, Turf, Florida-breds 3 & Up

This first-level allowance for state-breds drew a field of nine, and while most of them are grizzled veteran older horses, we like a 3-year-old: it’s 6-Proven Strategies, who starts for Mark Casse. His connection has always thought highly of this colt, as they ran him in some stakes races, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, in spite of the fact that he’d never won a race, and was still a maiden. He didn’t win any of those stakes, but he was competitive, and now, as a 3-year-old, he seems to have found his stride, finally breaking his maiden with a pace-pressing victory at Gulfstream Park on March 4. We think a replay of that effort is likely, and that makes Proven Strategies the pick. One thing that may help him today is that speed played very well on the Gulfstream turf yesterday, and if that trend carries over to this afternoon (and we think it probably will), it will give him a boost, as he’s a forwardly-placed runner. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 6-Proven Strategies.

Oaklawn Park, Race 7, 8, 9

Post times 5:06 pm, 5:38 pm, 6:09 pm Eastern

We like the late Pick 3 sequence at Oaklawn. We are going to play these races thusly:

Race 7: We are comfortable singling 2-Golden Notion, who starts for Brad Cox. He’s 5/2 and should win this maiden race.

Race 8: 2-Blue Moonrise and 5-Awe Emma have high speed and should be in front early in this mile race. If a horse comes and gets them, we think it will be 8-Blessed Again. We’ll play all three in the Pick 3.

Race 9: This allowance race looks wide open to us, so we’re going five deep. We’re including 1-American Butterfly, 2-Sycamore Run, 3-Ginobili, 6-Big Returns, and 7-The Great Dansky.

The ticket is as follows: Oaklawn Park, Race 7, Pick 3, 2 with 2,5,8 with 1,2,3,6,7.

This is a 1x3x5 play, 15 different total combinations. It costs $7.50 at the 50-cent level, $15 for a dollar, $30 for two dollars, and so on. We’ll play it for $3, for a total investment of $45. But it’s a play that can fit any budget.

That’s all for today. Enjoy the racing, be safe, and, as always, good luck at the windows.