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Today, we are looking at the eight races at Aqueduct. (SmartCap cards for races 2 through 8 below.)
1st Ms. Malevolence – of the 6 runners in this, she’s one of two who has had experience. She ships from GP where she came on strong in the last furlong to get up for second. The other horse with experience, Kashmir Queen, moves up to open company after a dull effort. The only first time starter with somewhat decent numbers is 1a Smart Set. Preference goes to Ms. Malevolence.
2nd Matty’s Magnum – 5:3-0-0 on dirt. Has best overall class, speed and $32K per time out. The next closest is #3 @ $24K. Two solid works since the end of December. Will stalk and close.
3rd Cowtown – 3rd off a layoff and best last numbers. Tonalist colt trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Manny Franco is hitting his form cycle and will be a player.
4th Seanow – gets best last numbers and trained by Antonio Arriaga, who is 40% with Kendrick Carmouche in the irons.
5th Exacta boxing Liam Lets Go, Bluebood and Laura’s Posse. I’ll also be playing Liam Lets Go to win and place.
6th Officer Hutchy – Linda Rice filly ran a strong race two back in the $500K NY Stallion Stakes. Returned six weeks later, stumbled out of the gate, rushed to the leaders and held strong to get up for place. Jose Lezcano aboard and with Linda, they’re 28%. Look for Vibrancy, Make Or Break and Wiggle And Jiggle to contend.
7th Wailin Josie – jockey Herman Harkie and trainer Steven Jerkens 33% together. This filly is the only one who has raced consistently at this level. Look for her to take advantage of this outside position by not getting blowback and pressing the leader. She’ll give it hell in the stretch.
8th My Boy Tate – Michelle Nevin (18%)/Manny Franco (28%) were second at the windows to T Loves A Fight last out in the Say Florida Sandy stakes. #8 Arthur’s Hope was the winner and mainly because this gelding was pinched at the start, brushed back and began some seven lengths back. Today will be a different story.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.