Spartiatis racing at Aqueduct.
Spartiatis racing at Aqueduct.|NYRA / Annette Jasko 
Thoroughbreds

Free Sunday SmartCap Race Pick for the 6th at Aqueduct, the $70K allowance race for 4 year olds and up

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As most of you are waking this morning and wondering what in the hell happened to Anneau d’Or, the explanation is as simple as complex – three-year-old thoroughbred racing, this early in its season, can be sanguine or frustrating. Factually, he had hit his peak form cycle and simply, bounced. Although only three races in, his numbers fell in his third race and that oftentimes signals trouble for young colts and fillies. Subsequently, the winner, Modernist, had previously posted Equibase numbers of 75, 91 & 93, signaling improvement with each outing. The questions of will Anneau be back at it in his previous form and will Modernist continue to improve? We’ll see.

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It’s going to be a mild February day at Aqueduct with sunny skies temperatures hovering around 45° when this sixth race goes post ward.

This $70K allowance race is for 4yo and up, fillies and mares that have never won other than…

We have a sweep today in SmartCap as #8 Aunt Babe (5/1) gets best last, best last two, best overall speed and best overall distance. With the pace setting up in front of her, I’m going to bet it. She is a strong closer, so, look for Jose Lezcano to come flying in the stretch and taking this.

SmartCap analysis of the sixth race at Aqueuct on 2/16/2020
SmartCap analysis of the sixth race at Aqueuct on 2/16/2020
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SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.

The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

Parameters…

  • You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

  • Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

  • We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

  • Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

  • We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

A sample SmartCap race chart.
A sample SmartCap race chart.
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