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For fillies and mares that are four years of age and greater, the 8th race at Aqueduct is the $100K Broadway Stakes.
After entering the Equibase numbers into SmartCap, I came up with #5 Kept True (5/2) and #2 Cash Offer (2/1) as best last. Kept True has the best overall speed and best overall class. #1 Out Of Orbit (6/1) gets best last two.
Of note - #4 Hay Field (3/1) is trained by Antonio Arriaga. Today, I put him in my virtual stable because he is one of those trainers who have few horses, and get the best out of them: this year – 25% winners. Also, Leah Gyarmati trains #5 Kept True. Leah is 22% wins the past 30 days, 19% overall this year and 69% itm.
Speaking of which, Hay Field is going for his fourth win in a row and is 12:6-4-0 at Aqueduct for $259K.
This will be a bull rush to the wire – Out Of Orbit and #6 Stonesintheroad (6/1) will vie for the front and the rest of the filed will lay close. When they turn for home, Hay Field, Cash Offer and Kept True will fight for the wire. Given Hay Field’s love of this track and competitive spirit, I believe she’ll gut this out.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
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