Racing at Aqueduct.
Racing at Aqueduct.|NYRA
Thoroughbreds

Free Friday horse racing pick using SmartCap for the fourth race at Aqueduct

RT

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Today’s race is the fourth at Aqueduct. It should be a sunny and chilly day, about 33° at post time.

This is a $70K allowance race for fillies and mares, four year olds and up. Post time is 14:25

Taking the Equibase numbers and running them through SmartCap, we get the #1 Figure It Out (4/5) as best last, #5 Private Beach (3/1) as a very close second in best last number. Figure It Out gets best overall speed with an 84.2 and Private Beach gets a near 83.9. For overall class, Private Beach is an 89.5 which is far greater than the rest of the field. So, on paper, Private Beach looks like the better overall play. Yet, I am not going with either. I’m going to take #2 Black Kettle (6/1).

First time winner at seven furlongs, Black Kettle gets her second race today for the new barn of Dane Kobiskie. Dylan Davis is set to ride and in her last race, she stayed near the pace, allowed the outside horse to pass, moved into the stretch and pulled away – an impressive performance. Today, she gets 2nd Lasix, has had two freshenings’ since and the extra furlong stretch out will be welcome.

SmartCap analysis of the 4th race at Aqueduct on 2/14/2020
SmartCap analysis of the 4th race at Aqueduct on 2/14/2020 RT

SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.

The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

Parameters…

  • You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

  • Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

  • We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

  • Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

  • We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

A sample SmartCap race chart.
A sample SmartCap race chart. RT
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