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Proudly sat on my hands yesterday with Parx and Mahoning Valley running in the slop. Figuring out who’s going to win in normal conditions is difficult enough, so when you add in that nasty weather, forget it.
I made up our SmartCap for the first at Sunland, only to discover it’s supposed to rain. That said, I’m too bloody lazy to find another, so let’s have a go.
The first race is a $25.6 allowance for fillies and mares that are four years old or greater, going six furlongs.
Perusing the field, there are only two horses that have raced on a wet track - #1 Glacier Point (6/1) 2:0-0-1 for $2,530. She has run in four turf races, winning one and receiving $11,785. Good mud runners can make good turf runners. #2 Ghost Of Creebar (10/1) has a 1:0-0-0 for $0 record. In its last four races, #2 has been pulled up twice and vanned off, so getting a solid effort of her is a true crapshoot.
#3 Hard Spun Gal (9/2) has been off since mid-August and her trainer, Larry Chavez (18%), is 0% with runners being off six plus months.
#4 Sweet Carolina (7/2) has only run two races and gets our SmartCap best last, best overall speed and class and has not raced since September of 2018. Her trainer, Bart Hone (11%) is 14% with runners coming off six months plus rest. Since December 31st, her works at Sunland have been steadily improving wither last at five furlongs in 1:00.8.
#5 Miss Kitty Mae (2/1) another Bart Hone entry, has also only run just two races with her last on December sixteenth where she broke her maiden in open company as an odds on fave. Hone 12% moving horses up in class and is 19% with jockey Elvin Gonzalez.
#6 Figure (7/2) is a Joel Marr (19%) trained filly and with jockey Ken Tohill, they’re winning at 21%. She recently raced in an optional claimer where she, as is her propensity, faded in the stretch.
So, who wins? I’m going with SmartCap in this and taking #4. Given her propensity to close and the speed in this race, I believe she’ll get the right set-up.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.