Free Sunday SmartCap Horse Racing Pick for races 1-3 at Aqueduct

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Snow is heading your way soon as we’re getting dumped on Sunday in Minneapolis. For today, however, it’s going to be cloudy and 46˚at Aqueduct.

Race 1

$40K Maiden Claiming for 4yo and up foaled in New York going one mile

Notes – SmartCap best last, best overall speed and class is #3 Brown Eyed Boy (7/5). Trainer Kathleen Demasi and jockey Kendrick Carmouche are 29% when teaming up. The interesting entry in this is #8 Try’N Smart’N Up (4/1). Going off as the second in the wagering last out, this gelding lost its rider, Jose Lezcano, last time and walked off. That was his first time racing for a tag after five attempts in msw company. Trainer Paul Barrow and Lezcano are 25% when hooking up and I look for a gate to wire performance.

Race 2

$16K Claiming race for four years olds and up, NW3, going six furlongs

Notes – Running the Equibase speed and class numbers, #6 Take It To Scale (1/1) has the best last, best overall speed and a near best overall class. #5 Our Honor (12/1) has a near best last, best last two races and best overall speed. #4 Quest For Fire (3/1) is a last out winner at this level and was 10-1 in that race. Asking a previous long shot, lower level claiming horse to repeat is a tough call. So, not wanting to beta 1/1 ml favorite, I’ll take a shot on a win and twice that amount to place on Our Honor.

Race 3

$25K Claiming fillies and mares that are four years old and up NW3.

Notes – SmartCap shows a sweep of best last, best overall speed and class for #6 Miss Hot Stones (6/5). This is not the best situation for trainer Bruce Levine who is 0% with horses off six+ months. Additionally, her works have been pedestrian and she’s dropping in class radically. It smells like trouble. Instead, I am going with #4 Calinas Song (3/1). Coming in second with best overall class and returning three weeks later with a drop in price, trainer Edward Barker and Kendrick Carmouche score at 33%. In her last race, she stumbled at the start, raced up to the leaders and eventually tired. She’ll get a much easier trip today and should take this.

SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.

The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

Parameters…

• You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

• Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

• We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

• Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

• We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.