Post time is 3:55 pm EST.
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For Sunday, Feb. 2, we are evaluating the 6th race at Aqueduct. This is an Optional Claimer for state bred fillies and mares that are 4yo and above. This is a six-and-a-half-furlong race. Post time is 3:55est.
SmartCap has brought out the #7 Hay Field (4/5) as best overall speed and class. #3 Puffery (5/2) is near second with best last, class and speed. Hay Field will be a tough out; however, I believe there’s a sneaker in here that could make this interesting. It’s the #5 Play My Money (10/1).
What makes her interesting is her last two races. In those, she pounded out just north of :13 seconds in the final furlong and increasing speed as she goes longer. Given the speed duel we’re likely to see, if jockey Kyle Frey can stay near the lead, he’ll have a great shot at tiring horses in that subtle final half furlong. I plan on betting #5 Play My Money to win and place as well as exactas and trifectas including #7 Hay Field and #3 Puffery.
In her last seven races, Hay Field has been claimed six times. This includes the current re-claim for trainer Linda Rice. This mare has an astounding Aqueduct record – eleven starts, five wins and two placers for $219,504…. if a horse is happy at a particular track, it will continue to run well there. The opposite is true, too.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
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