First post is at 12:25 pm EST.
1st: Mossbawn – a few different angles here. Comes out of a key race where of the returning eight starters who've run, only one has turned in a dullard race that didn’t eliminate others from the key…and that was a $10K claimer. This is the same level and shorter distance, so we’ll see if that makes a difference. Second, first Lasix, first gelding and first blinkers. Third is it has been three months since he’s been gelded. From this point forward, his musculoskeletal system is starting to rapidly accelerate and given his three months layoff, you’re going to see a much improved horse. Finally, second start. Ninety percent of horses starting their second time improve. Will he win at such a huge price? I damn sure hope so.
6th: the entry of Sweet August Lady and Blissful Breeze - Both are recent claimers of Jamie Ness, both dropped in class (Sweet August Lady dramatically) and got scooped up and both have recent works of 3 furlongs . . . together. This is a rarity and you’ll see the two chase each other in this race.
9th: the man who formulated our SmartCap program, is a West Point grad, so I must bet on Long Gray Line. He is a recent claimee of leading trainer Joseph Taylor and has been competitive his last three. We’ll see. Lucky Britches is a first timer since being claimed by Jamie Ness. Angel Rodriguez rides this Lookin At Lucky gelding and with Ness, they’re 60% win tandem.
5th: Waverly Sunset - I’ve had this circled since his last race for two reasons: 1) his trainer, Brett Santangelo, has been extremely competitive at Mahoning Valley. Last year, he had a much broader presence here and things have changed. 2) in his last, he got a rancid trip, came 5 wide and damn near closed the deal.
8th: Danzig Rainbow – Kevin Buttigieg is probably the hottest trainer at Mahoning Valley. Yes, betting a horse who hasn’t won in his first ten races versus other who have won, isn’t the wisest choice; however, given this level of competition and the condition this horse is rounding into, I’m taking a shot.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.