Racing at Mahoning Valley in Ohio.
Racing at Mahoning Valley in Ohio.hollywoodmahoningvalley.com

Thoroughbred Tuesday picks from Garrity features races from Parx Racing, Mahoning Valley, and Sunland Park

There's a good card today at Parx Racing in suburban Philadelphia ,and there are a couple of playable races at Mahoning Valley in Ohio and Sunland Park in New Mexico. We expect fast dirt at all three places. Let's go.

Parx Racing, Race 1, 12:25 pm ET

$40,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 furlongs, dirt, 3-Year-Old Fillies

Eight 3-year-old fillies will go to the post in this maiden claiming sprint. Four have experience in races; four are making their first start. In races like these, we start by looking at the form of the established runners: we use this as a baseline for how good the first-timers will have to be to have a chance at winning.

In this race, the fillies with prior starts have not exactly set the world on fire, which has us looking at the firsters. Of them, we like 8-Aamaal. She is a Shadwell Stablehomebred with good breeding: she's by Hard Spun, out of a Jazil mare. Her morning workout pattern is exactly what we want to see in a horse making her first career start: a long stream of steadily spaced workouts, which build up a horse's stamina and overall fitness level. And most important, she is trained by Michael Pino, who wins with an exceptionally good 36% of his first-time starters. We are a bit concerned that a horse with her breeding is entered in a maiden claiming race, rather than a straight maiden race -- if her connections thought that highly of her, they wouldn't enter her in a race where she can be claimed away from them -- but we will put aside those reservations, and trust that she has been placed here because she is ready to run, and they think she can win this. We will bet her to win at 7/2. The bet: Parx Racing, Race 1, $25 to win on 8-Aamaal.

Parx Racing, Race 9, 4:01 pm ET

Allowance, 6 furlongs, dirt, Pennsylvania-breds 4 & Up

A nice big field of twelve goes in this first-level allowance race for state-breds. We're expecting a speed duel here, as several of the runners are need-the-lead types who figure to go to fast trying to get to the front of the field. We're looking for a horse who can sit off the pace and make a late run.

The pick is the favorite, 6-Septimius Severus. He's switching from turf to dirt, and from a route to a sprint; both are angles that we like. He's trained by high-percentage conditioner George Weaver, and he should be able to relax early and make a strong late run. Look for him to be rolling late. We will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Parx Racing, Race 9, $40 to win on 6-Septimius Severus.

Mahoning Valley, Race 4, 2:08 pm ET

Allowance, 5 1/2 furlongs, dirt, 3 & Up

A field of nine goes to the gate in this first-level allowance. It's a good betting race. We like 8-Sir Michael, a 4-year-old gelding who last ran at a mile at Mountaineer Park. He finished second in that race, but his past efforts suggest he is better sprinting than going around two turns. We like the cutback in distance today, and we think he'll get a good stalking trip from his outside post position, and being able to finish strongly. We will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Mahoning Valley, Race 4, $35 to win on 8-Sir Michael.

Sunland Park, Race 3, 3:17 pm ET

Maiden Special Weight, 6 furlongs, dirt, New Mexico-bred 3-Year-Old Fillies

The hot favorite in this race is 3-Chary Ride. This filly is winless in six career starts, but only two of them were maiden races: her connections thought highly enough of her that they ran her in some allowance and stakes contests. She's 5/2 on the morning line, and if she is that price at post time, bet her with the rent money, but we think she's going to be more like 3/5 than 5/2, and at that price, she is a play-against. She has earned some decent figures, but taking even money or less on a horse with four in-the-money finishes and zero wins is something that we just cannot do.

We're going with a first-time starter, and a big price, in here, 4-Red Cloud Express. She is by Indy Express, an A.P. Indy stallion who stands in New Mexico, and she has shown some ability in the mornings. But the main reason for the play is her trainer: Nancy Summers has a very good 14% win rate with firsters, and some of them have hit at very generous odds. She's 12-1, so we will take a shot on Red Cloud Express, and bet her across the board at 12-1. The bets: Sunland Park, Race 3, $10 to win/place/show on 4-Red Cloud Express.

That's all for today. As always, good luck at the windows.

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