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After yesterdays’ slop and the drop in temps, we’ll see how Aqueduct plays today. To repeat, I do not wager when the track is off. It is a gordian effort predicting a winner as it is, much less to throw in shambolic conditions. Todays’ race is the $100K Interborough Stakes, the 8th at Aqueduct. It’s for fillies and mares, 4yo and above going seven furlongs. #2 Saguaro Row (2/1), according to SmartCap, looks the one to beat and I’ll go with her. She’s coming off a tough trip last out in the G3 $250K Go For Wand and the track comments were - SAGUARO ROW bobbled just after the start, chased three then two wide in closest aim of the leader patiently handled until let out angled four wide into upper stretch, dug in under a drive running on to chase the winner home, and safely secured the place honors.”
So, she bobbled at the start, ran wide the entire trip and then came four wide in the stretch. When prompted, she gave a game effort to Spiced Perfection. Today, she gets a turn back in distance where the next to last out, she won the $100K Pumpkin Pie Stakes at seven furlongs. Evidently, she came out of her last race in good form getting three workouts since for :48, :48 and 1:01. In addition to betting the above, I am going to add in my exotics, #5 New Years’ Wish (5/2). She is third off a layoff for Linda Rice and has a record of 7:5-0-1 at Aqueduct. I’ll also add #4 Piedi Bianchi (10/1) who has a lifetime record of 12:2-3-3 for $361,850 or $30,151/start, $8K more than the next best.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.