Aqueduct Racetrack
Aqueduct Racetrack|Francesca LeDonne Photo/Aqueduct/NYRA
Thoroughbreds

FREE Thursday Horse Racing Pick: RT and SmartCap handicap the 7th race at Aqueduct

Post time is 3:55 pm EST.

RT

Todays’ race is the 7th at Aqueduct where it should be sunny and 36 degrees at post time.

This is a one turn, one mile Optional Claimer for four year olds and up.

Looking at the SmartCap numbers, it would be easy to grab the favorite in this, #5 Grumps Little Tots (4/5). After all, how does one bet against a horse who has chased the likes of Tax, Tacitus, Haikal, Mind Control et al? Depending on the pace, there could be a runner who stands a chance to get his picture taken at the wire.

#1 Playthatfunnymusic (3/1), #6 Musical America (5/1), #2 Proschema (8/1) and #5 Grumps Little Tots will all vie for the lead while #3 Felix In Fabula (6/1) will lay back and wait for the pace to unfold.

After checking the at-a-glance archive on Brisnet (below), I see where the track bias has changed to favoring off the pace runners. For the first two months, 18% wired the field and it has now dropped, over the last week, to eight percent.

Track bias
Track bias RT

Today, I am going to take a flyer on #3 Felix In Fabula to bomb the stretch and get up for the win.

Happy Hunting

SmartCap's card for the  Aqueduct 7th race.
SmartCap's card for the Aqueduct 7th race. RT

SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.

The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

Parameters…

  • You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

  • Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

  • We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

  • Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

  • We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.

A sample SmartCap race chart.
A sample SmartCap race chart. RT
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