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For Wednesday, Jan. 8, let’s go some place warm. Of course, I am writing this from Minneapolis and darn near every other place south of here is warmer.
Today, we have the 2nd race at Tampa Bay Downs, a $75K Optional Claimer for 3yo, NW2, NW other than maiden, claiming, or starter, going a mile on the turf.
#6 – Muchmorethanthis (5/2) and #4 High Heater (6/1) are in for a tag today. I find it off-putting that Muchmorethanthis is in for a tag given he’s still a colt, been raced four times and has come in the money all four times. The connections, if claimed, would realize a profit and not a big score, if someone does pay the fee. This colt has good lineage – Cityzip and Idoitmyway (Unbridled), so it feels like trainer Michael Trombetta knows something we don’t. As for High Heater, he doesn’t like tapeta and in every race, he fades. Today, he is stretching out for the first time, so expect him to take the lead, given this race is absent of early speed, and fade off.
Inputting TimeformUS pp’s into SmartCap, we have come up with #3 Me And Mr. C (2/1) having the best overall class and speed, then #2 Bye Bye Melvin (3/1) as best last.
My choice is #2 Bye Bye Melvin. He started his career, four races ago, routing and has yet to run a sprint. The majority of the horses in this have mainly been sprinting. Three back, at Laurel in September, Bye Bye Melvin was steadied late, regained his mo-jo and blistered the stretch in :23.60. That was at today’s distance and the nearest to that figure is #3 who did a :24.48…damn near a second slower which supposedly makes five lengths.
I’m going to throw in #1 Matty’s Express (10/1) and #6 Muchmorethanthis into my exotics.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.