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On Monday, Jan. 5, we are evaluating Mahoning Valley's 2nd race. This is a $25K Allowance Optional Claimer for fillies and mares 3yo and up.
Three runners, #5 Bella Dudette (5/2), #3 Hidatsa Park (15/1), and #4 Almighty Storm (20/1), are in for a tag and the rest are protected.
In order, this is the latest results from this group and it is dismal with a few exceptions
1 – lost by 17, lost by 3, won $20K allowance at MNR on turf 9/23
2 – won at this level, 2nd by 3, won $17K allowance, broke maiden in $22K open co.
3 – lost by 9, lost by 11, 3rd in stakes, won $25K allowance (off form?)
4 – lost by 4, won $5K claimer, lost by 1 in $4K claimer
5 – lost by 7, lost by 8, lost by 8, won $27K allowance at TDN on 10/15
6 – lost by 8, lost by 21, won $75K stakes on 9/21 at TDN
7 – lost by 11, lost by 8, lost by 14
Using Timeform class and speed numbers, you’ll see that #5 has the best last, #6 has best overall class and #3 has best overall speed. Yet, the one that has rounded into form and is a useful front runner is my choice - #2 Anniversary Rose (8/5). Jockey Jose Bracho and trainer Gary Johnson are 32% winners when paired, and Bracho has been hot of late, hitting 43% winners.
This five year old mare is going to take the lead and not be caught.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.