Chris Garrity's Saturday Stakes Picks: Races at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita and Aqueduct, including The Sham, a Kentucky Derby prep race

The stakes schedule is relatively quiet today, with most of the action, as it will be for most of January, in the sunshine at Gulfstream Park in South Florida and Santa Anita Park in Southern California. We'll take a look at stakes races at both ovals, along with a peek at a race at Aqueduct on Long Island. We expect fast dirt and firm turf, except where noted. Let's go.

Aqueduct, Race 8, 3:55 pm ET

$100,000 La Verdad Stakes, 7 furlongs, dirt, New York-bred Fillies & Mares 4 & Up

After rains Friday and into Saturday, we're expecting the main track at the Big A to be sloppy. But not only is the slop OK, it's a good thing, at least from a wagering standpoint: on a fast track, this would probably be an unplayable race, as the speedy 3/5 morning line favorite 2-Pauseforthecause would seem to be all about unbeatable. But in the slop, we think she is vulnerable, especially at a very short price.

We like 5-Cash Offer. This 4-year-old filly has quite a bit of early speed of her own, not as much as the favorite, perhaps, but certainly enough to clear the rest of the field (and as a refresher: speed in the slop is good). And she's shown an affinity for off tracks in the past, with a good second in her second career race on a sloppy surface right here at the Big A. We think she's in with a big chance, and at 5-1 she offers much, much more value than the favorite. We will bet her to win. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 8, $35 to win on 5-Cash Offer.

Gulfstream Park, Race 7, 3:00 pm ET

$100,000 Kitten's Joy Stakes, 7 1/2 furlongs, turf, 3-year-olds

Gulfstream runs a quintet of overnight stakes today, as they move into the height of the tourist season in Florida. A couple of them are good betting races, including this one, which drew eight newly-minted 3-year-olds to run 7 1/2 furlongs on the sod. That distance is key, as the races at that distance at Gulfstream Park start very, very close to the first turn, which leaves horses on the outside at a major disadvantage. This is doubly true with younger horses, like the juveniles in here, as they lack the experience to be able to deal with stuff like this. We mention this because the colt on the outside, 9-Summer to Remember, has good form, but the post gives him virtually no chance.

There's a lot of speed in the race, and we think that will lead to a hot pace, and a winner coming just off it. We might normally look to a deep closer in a spot like this, but the turf course at Gulfstream has been pretty speed-favoring lately, putting the come-from-behinders at a distinct and decided disadvantage. So we're looking more for a stalking type of horse, and that is 2-Irish Mias, a New Jersey-bred son of Sky Mesa who starts for trainer Graham Motion. He just missed in his last, finishing second in a similar stakes race at a mile, and we think that he gets to the winner's circle today. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Gulfstream Park, Race 7, $40 to win on 2-Irish Mias.

Gulfstream Park, Race 8, 3:30 pm ET

$75,000 Glitter Woman Stakes, 6 1/2 furlongs, dirt, 3-year-old Fillies

Eight drew into the Glitter Woman, and we like 7-Sayonara Baby. She's got the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field, a 76 she earned winning her last start, but is 10-1 on the morning line, mostly because that race was a $35,000 maiden claimer. But as Maximum Security proved a year ago -- he won a $16k maiden claimer in December of 2018, and will probably be voted Champion 3-year-old of 2019 -- good horses can come out of these races, and Sayonara Baby looks like a good one to us. We'll take 10-1 on the horse with the highest last-race speed figure, and we'll take it all day long. We will bet her to win. The bet: Gulfstream Park Race 8, $30 to win on 7-Sayonara Baby.

Santa Anita Park, Race 5, 4:40 pm ET

Grade 3 Sham Stakes, 1 mile, dirt, 3-year-olds

It's hard to believe that it's here, but we've arrived at Kentucky Derby prep season. The Sham is a significant early-season Derby prep, and the field this year is a good one. The favorite is 1-Authentic, who's trained by Bob Baffert -- who else? -- and who comes into the race off a very fast maiden win in a sprint at Del Mar in November. He could be one to watch, but for betting purposes, we like another Baffert trainee, 4-Azul Coast. Like Authentic, he is well-bred, but unlike his stablemate, he has already won a race around two turns, and that race was pretty incredible: he was very wide all the way around that day, and he drew off to win by four. Horses just don't win that way at Los Al, and that Azul Coast did means he might be something special. We think he's the horse to beat in here, and with Authentic, and his big speed figure, likely to draw so much of the betting money, we think we'll get a square price on Azul Coast. We will bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Santa Anita, Race 5, $40 to win on 4-Azul Coast.

Santa Anita Park, Race 8, 6:24 pm ET

Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, turf, 4 & Up

We go from juveniles going a mile on dirt to older horses going nine furlongs on the turf. This year's running of the San Gabriel drew a field of seven. We like 6-Majestic Eagle. Like all horses trained by the great Neil Drysdale, this 5-year-old horse has been brought along patiently, and each of his last five four have been spaced well, and have resulted in good efforts. We particularly like his last, when he was fourth, only two lengths behind the winner, against a good field in the Seabiscuit at Del Mar in November. That was his first start after a brief fall layoff; today, in his second off the freshening, he should run even better. That makes him the pick. We will bet him to win at 3-1. The bet: Santa Anita Park, Race 8, $40 to win on 6-Majestic Eagle.

That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.