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I’m changing pp’s today and trying out Timeform.
Today’s race is the 3rd at Santa Anita, a $57K Allowance Optional Claimer, nine panel turf race for Cal Bred fillies and mares, 4 years old and up.
Timeform gives this race a 96 rating and the 1 – Quinnie (4/1) with the 2 – Moonless Sky (7/2) are the only ones to near or exceed that number. However, as you can see below with SmartCap, they haven’t run in better class races. Going a mile and one eight requires class, which is defined as “the ability possessed by it to carry its stipulated weight, take the track and go the distance that nature intended that it should go. That said, time enters the argument under certain conditions, but if depended entirely for a deduction it will be found wanting”
None of the horses in this race have gone this distance, so there are two major factors to consider:
1) Jockey skill in routes
2) Closing skills
Flavien Pratt, the top SoCal turf rider, gets a second shot at 7 – Rose Dunn (5/2). The last out, he had her rated well, moved into the lead at the turn and faded down the stretch. That was against the same level of competition in a one mile event. Her propensity has been to fade and if anyone can get her to settle into the pace and wait out the tiring horses in front of her this time, Pratt can. 4 – Lucky Miss Jones (4/1), gets Tyler Baze for the first time and she is a stone cold closer. Her last race was Nov. 15 and has since had four workouts, with her last two being very sharp – 5f in 1:01 and 4 in :48.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Rose Dunn take the lead in the backstretch with 6 – Brahms Command (6/1) in tow, then Quinnie, 2 – Moonless Sky (7/2) and Lucky Miss Jones moving up. Once they hit the top of the stretch, Lucky Miss Jones will position herself to have a late run and then make her move getting the win.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.