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Of late, the races you have read from me have been on an off track. As explained below, it is advisable to steer clear from betting this situation. No matter what the pp’s say, whether the horse is a good mudder or not, you just never know.
Today we are heading to Gulfstream and race 10. This is a $30K claiming, one mile turf race for girls 4-years-old and up which have never won two races.
Applying Equibase class and speed numbers, SmartCap has surfaced two challengers.
#4 – Comic Kitten (5/12)
#7 – Pioneerof New York (8/1)
Equibase gave this race a class rating of 92 and only two horses have hit that number
#4 – Comic Kitten
#8 – Trieste (10/1) (a Brazilian horse with an Italian city name..lol)
Of note - #9 Barbadolla (3/1) returned to turf last out to win going away. That was a $35K AOC and now drops to a $30K claimer. That’s suspicious given that in his optional claiming race last out, he was protected from being claimed. Furthermore, #4 – Comic Kitten is dropping radically from allowance company of $97K, $73K, and $145K respectively. Additionally, her turf record is 0-2-1 in 10 races. #7 – Pioneerof New York took nine races to break her maiden and that was at Woodbine on tapeta. She was moved to Belmont in her next race and was outclassed.
So, who wins?
You’re going to see the 1, 3, 5 & 9 charge out to the lead and when they enter the backstretch, expect the 9 to surge to the front. #4, 7 & 5 will make their move nearing the turn as experienced jockeys know that GP does not have much stretch. Since #4 is cutting back to a mile and has run well in that distance, yet in a longer race, look for her to make a move IF she’s not being blown out in this claimer to dump the horse. Since Mike Maker trains both the 4 and 9, I’m sure he’ll like nothing better than to have one set up the other. However, #5 – Recess (9/2), is a Belmont shipper trained by Todd Pletcher and has a new jockey in Irad Ortiz. They should be flying late.
My bets for this race are the 4 to win and place, an exacta box of 4-9-8 and a trifecta of 9-5/5-9-8/4, 9-5/4/9-5-8, 4/9-5/9-5-8
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.