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Today, Tuesday the 31st, we are heading to The City of Brotherly Love for the 3rd at Parx. The weather should be a sunny, balmy 50 degrees at post time.
This is a one-and-a-half mile, $5K claiming race for 3yo and up whom have not won a race since June. Since this is the last day of the year, all thoroughbreds turn another year older after January 1st, so this will be their last respective race at this age.
Given the distance of today’s race, this seemingly comes down to jockey skills. Going over the stats to date, there are three in this that are in the top 10 at Parx for route races.
#2 – Clowney (30/1) Silvestre Gonzalez up: 12%
#3 – General Bellamy (3/2) Dexter Haddock up: 10%
# 8 – Scherzo (5/2) Trevor McCarthy up: no official Parx stats, but we all know he’s a stud jockey.
In every race on Equibase pp’s, General Bellamy has faded. Although this is a class drop, habits like that are big obstacles for thoroughbreds. So, after reviewing the SmartCap figures, I am going with Scherzo.
Returning from only eight days since his last, trainer Michael Catalano is 40% when going from sprint to route. Two back, on an off-track, he gamely closed to just miss in a sprint race at this level. His last, a $50K starter allowance, he went off slow and got caught up in a ton of traffic, so his jockey gave up on him. Now, eight days later and a positive jockey, switch, he’ll get a chance to go long at this level and I am going to bet him.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.