Ho Ho Ho. Make one last score before the holidays.
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I will be going dark until Dec. 28. I hope you all have a fantastic Hanukkah, Christmas, or whatever you celebrate with your family.
For Monday, Dec. 23, we are going to one of the many large fields at Parx. This is the 8th race, a $7.5K starter allowance for 3-year-olds and up going one mile and seventy yards.
Of note – there are four horses listed as AE, so if any of these twelve scratches, look for #16, Visionary Ruler (5/2) to be a factor.
Equibase has this race set at an 87 par and there are only four horses who have come close or crossed that threshold of late.
#16 – Visionary Ruler (5/2) got a 94 on the turf at Monmouth on Sept. 19, a 90 on dirt at Monmouth on Sept. 6 and an 83 at Monmouth on Aug. 19, on dirt
#2 – Country Corrections (9/2) hit an 85 on Aug. 19 at Colonial on turf
#12 – Candid Desire (7/2) scored an 89 at Belmont on Sept. 12.
#5 – Refuseing (10/1) hit an 83 at Parx on Nov. 26, an 88 at Parx on Nov. 17, and an 88 at Parx on Nov. 5.
My choice is #5 Refuseing. It’s one thing for North American horses to achieve high numbers on turf, where the surface is less heavy than Europeans, and it’s a new ballgame when they go to Parx. As I have written here in the past, Parx is akin to racing in sand and it is highly unlikely that a solid turf number can replicate anything near that here.
SmartCap, using Equibase speed and class numbers, has surfaced Refuseing for best last, best overall class and best speed – sans Visionary Ruler. Even if Visionary Ruler runs, I will still probably go with Refuseing because Visionary Ruler will start on the far outside, with the first turn coming up quick. This 16th position is going to hang him very wide.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
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