FREE Thursday Horse Racing Pick: RT and SmartCap look at the 7th race at frosty Aqueduct

Chilly Aqueduct for Thursday, Dec. 19. The weather is supposed to be clear and 25 degrees at post time.

Todays’ race is the 7th, is a six furlong Allowance Optional Claimer for three-year olds and up.

Looking solely at the pp’s, you’d have a tough time determining a winner – you have Dad, Jeremiah Engelhart, with two entries in #4 – Runforthemunnings (3/1) and #1 – Puttheglassdown (5/2), against son Chris Engelhart saddling #2 Aristocratic (12/1). Furthermore, Runforthemunnijngs just blistered a weaker, $57K Allowance at Laurel by eleven lengths getting a 112 speed number; #5 Saratoga Gio (8/1), clipped a 104 Equibase figure last out versus $20K Allowance company at Finger Lakes; Puttheglassdown has hit a 100 and 100 his last two against $35K and $16K AOC company its last two; and SmartCap's, as well as my, top choice, #6 Arthur’s Hope (4/1) is dropping class from the $150K New York Stallion Series Stakes where he either was in front, or stayed near the lead, until the stretch before tiring.

This will be the second race off a layoff for Arthur’s Hope and his return effort, as well as his bullet work on Dec. 12, shows that he is in sharp form.

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SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.

The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

Parameters…

• You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

• Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

• We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

• Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

• We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.