Sunday Horse Racing: RT picks the Springboard Mile at Remington Park, an early Kentucky Derby prep race
For Sunday, December 15th, we’re going to head to Remington for the Springboard Mile. This is a prep for The Derby; the winner gets ten points, second gets four, and two points each for both third and fourth place.
The Springboard is the 12th race on the card and is slated to go off at 9:19 pm EST and don’t count on it. Remington goes slow.
After many times of entering the data in SmartCap using Equibase figures, I have found that races like this, where none of the entrants have competed for this amount of money and is for two-year olds, is an act of futility. So, I am flying without a parachute and using just the pp’s. There are a few mitigating factors when trying to dissect a race such as this.
• Age
• Distance
• Pace
• Post position
• Experience
• Connections
This is a two-turn mile for 2-year-olds and to date, there are six horses that have run that distance and three that, on paper, have the late kick tendencies which give the appearance they are capable of the stretch out.
The six who have gotten the distance: #3 Rowdy Yates (7/2) last out, won a state restricted stakes here November 15th. #5 Jungle Runner (15/1) last out, won a $100K stakes going away at seven furlongs. #7 Southgate (30/1) decent middle move last out; doesn’t seem contentious. #9 Shoplifted (5/1) 24/1 ran in Breeders Cup Juvenile and had zero in the tank. #11 Kirkules (30/1) placed last out to Rowdy Yates getting beat by five lengths. #12 Slew Tang Clan (50/1) smart middle move last out in slop at this track.
Up for second Late kickers: #4 Answer In (5/2) five length winner going away at seven furlongs last out at Churchill. #1 Piece Of Work (12/1) one race under his belt; ran away with a $33K open company MSW here on November 15th. #8 Embolden (9/2) strong stretch move after bad start to get second at Aqueduct. Five times out, four on turf. Questionable.
At the top of this post, I put the track bias for the meet. This is important, because at Remington, the one-mile configuration starts almost at the first turn and several of these horses have yet to run two turns. For us who have watched enough races, you have noticed that a turn to the left is unnatural to horses and until they have done it around an oval, this can be daunting. Additionally, starting at the turn will cause the outside runners to run wide or bolt out of the gate to get position, expend energy, then tuck in to save ground. This, at Remington, is disadvantageous and as you can see by the bias results, the rail is live.
Some tracks, like Penn National for example, have a dead rail. You do not want to be caught there at Penn because, apparently, the track must play heavier.
Regarding connections, trainer Steve Asmussen owns Remington with 74 wins thus far this meet and 104 last year. The closest so far this year is Karl Broberg with 5. Last year, Broberg had 57. Asmussen has three runners in this, #3 Rowdy Yates, #5 Jungle Runner, and #9 Shoplifted. Karl Broberg does not have a horse entered.
The extenuating factor, among others, is the trainer knows the nuances of the track, the horses, and can deftly provide guidance to the jockey if unfamiliar with the strip. Pace – as Maximum Security showed in The Derby this year, young horses can go wayward fast. Often, it’s hard for the jockey to control the front runner due to the horses’ inexperience and in this race, the front runners, 1-6-10-3 will break quick and fight for the lead. Also, look for the outside horses, #’s 7-12 to make a mad rush to the turn.
Now, tying all of this together, who benefits and who wins? The first inclination is to look for an Asmussen horse with an inside draw that has either a strong jockey with a deft touch to grab the lead and control the pace or have mad closing skills. This would land you on to #3 Rowdy Yates. However, after watching the races, I have concluded that the horse I am going to bet on is the #4 Answer In.
This Broken Vow colt rallied from twelve back in his first outing to take the lead, only to get nipped at the wire. In his next, and last race, he crushed the competition with jockey Luis Saez never taking the whip to him. In that race, when prompted, Answer In lifted his head, perked his ears and killed the final furlong in :12.14….an incredible feat for such a young horse. The coups de grace? He gets Javier Castellano in the irons and trainer Brad Cox has won four times with thirteen horses when he stretches out his runners after a maiden win.
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SmartCap
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
Parameters…
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.
