FREE SmartCap Horse Racing Picks for three Saturday stakes races at Gulfstream Park

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Today, we’re going to pick three winners from three stakes at Gulfstream.

The weather should be perfect - 83 degrees.

The 6th race is the $100K Sugar Swirl Stakes. This is a six furlong sprint for fillies and mares three years old and up. According to SmartCap/Equibase, there are three best last contenders and one that is a near second. Additionally, according to Equibase, their class rating for this event is a 101.

The three best last runners:

#3 A Bit Of Both (3/1) – has zero recent races eclipsing the 101 mark.

#8 Meadow Dance (8/1) – zero recent races above 101.

#7 Pretty Greely (30/1) – zero recent races above 101.

#2 Bronx Beauty (9/2) – raced a 110 (bests all of these) and a 103.

Best overall speed is the #7 and best overall class is #6 Stormy Embrace (6/1).

I believe the key to this race is twofold – a) there is a ton of early speed and because of that, b) the #2 has been clocking some very slow workouts. This connotes the connections knowing the styles of all else involved and tailoring a different style to utilize this filly to take advantage of what’s in front of her….think Belichick strategizing to take away the other teams’ strengths. Yes, my choice is #2 Bronx Beauty.

Next, we have the $100K My Charmer Stakes for the 7th race and its for fillies and mares, three years and up going one mile on turf.

The good news is that the deadly tandem of Chad Brown and Irad Oritz are on #6 – Altea (3/1) and the better news is that SmartCap has identified the superior horse in #1 – Mitchell Road (9/5). Let’s hope that his odds will improve. It wouldn’t surprise me if this War Chant filly doesn’t wire this group.

And finally…..the 8th race. This is the $100K Rampart Stakes for fillies and mares three years old and up. This is contested over one mile on dirt.

This will be interesting to see how Sophie Doyle, on #10 Cairenn (8/1), who has the best last numbers, as well as Paco Lopez on the #11 Cookie Dough (7/2), who has the best overall speed and class, negotiate the first turn. Since Gulfstream is a one turn mile, a good jockey doesn’t want to fry their far outside horse running up to the lead too quick….unless they’re certain they won’t be too harshly contested and can slow/control the pace. I’m going with the #4 Pink Sands (8/1). I believe you’ll see Jose Ortiz lay back, save ground, allow the speed to fry itself and then blow by in the stretch.

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SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.

The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

Parameters…

• You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

• Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

• We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

• Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

• We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.