FREE Aqueduct Horse Racing Pick: RT and SmartCap analyze Thursday's 7th race

Today we’re giving you the 7th race at chilly Aqueduct where it’ll be a crisp 34 degrees at post time.

This is a $62.5K Allowance Optional Claiming race for three-year olds and up.

Returning to action today is the #8 – Identity Politics, who just a year ago was chasing McKinzie in the Malibu at Santa Anita. Since that time, he got smoked by World Of Trouble in the G2 Carter this spring at Aqueduct, scored a W in an allowance at Belmont and digressed two races from there. He has been shelved since this past September and has had ten workouts since. Although not getting the best SmartCap number through Equibase, this guy could be dangerous as his all-world trainer Chad Brown is a master in these situations. Brown is 24% with horses off 2-6 months, 35% moving from router to sprint and 20% with jockey Manny Franco. Keep him in your exotics.

Who will win? #6 – Payne (8/5). Another Chad Brown trainee, this Paynter colt just scored a win over the track against similar company and with Kendrick Carmouche in the irons, they’re hitting at 27% win clip. He’s had four solid works since his last out, including one bullet, so he comes into this in razor sharp form. This guy has a deadly late kick scorching his last furlong recently in just north of twelve seconds – the stretch out will be right up his alley.

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SmartCap

SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.

Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.

The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.

The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.

If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.

Parameters…

• You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.

• Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.

• We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.

• Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.

• We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.

For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.