First post time is 3:20 pm ET.
Today we’re going to look at three stakes races:
The $200K Grade 3 Discovery Stakes from Aqueduct
The $100K Imagining Safely Kept Stakes from Laurel
The $100K Grade 3 Berkeley Handicap from Golden Gate
The Discovery Stakes is for three-year-olds going a mile and an eighth. If I’m going to take a shot against #1 – Tax (2/1), it will be with Jorge Navarro's colt, #7 – Carlos L (12/1). Navarro is wily enough to sneak this guy in for a win. After shipping him here from his native Panama, he entered him in a $100K stakes at Parx where he went off as second in the betting. He started well and eventually tired; a likelihood from racing in Panama to the deep trenches at Parx. Today, he’ll get the benefit of first Lasix and jockey Kendrick Carmouche. Together, with Navarro, they’re a 27% prop. Can he pull it off?
The Imagining Safely Kept Stakes at Laurel is a seven furlong event for three year old fillies. I’m going to side with the #1 – Hey Mamaluke (5/1), a personal fave, in an exotic or two. He’ll certainly vie for the lead with 3-4-6. I will be betting #2 – Needs Supervision (5/1), who has the best Equibase/SmartCap overall speed and class. He is a closer and will benefit from the pace in front and after watching yesterdays racing at Laurel, the track is not favoring speed.
The Berkeley Handicap is for three-year-olds and up going a mile and a sixteenth on the tapeta. There is going to be a fast pace in this and the intelligent jockey will be the one to get the money. I am going to side with Julien Couton on #9 – Ohio (3/1). I have seen this gelding run before and his late kick is exceptional…..unless you’re Victor Espinoza and wait too long, bring him wide to the grandstand for popcorn, then try to get him back in the race.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrants’ best last race, with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is its class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? It identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape has the advantage.
The graph on the right represents a horses’ overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from Penn National, race two. To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this example, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. The #10 has the best last, close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. It won going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley, Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
For subscription information, email SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.