Thoroughbred Tuesday: Garrity goes to Parx and picks the horses

We will play a few races at Parx today. With the tracks in New York and California dark, Tuesdays are big days for Parx, days when they get the attention of simulcast players around the country, and they have a good and playable card as a result. The races are all on dirt, which should be fast, and the weather should be fine for November. Let's go.

Parx, Race 1, 12:25 pm ET

$20,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 furlongs, dirt, 2-Year-Olds

A full field of ten goes in the opener at Parx, a maiden claiming sprint for juveniles. Since the colts who have started before have not shown much, we like a first-time starter, 8-Baby Bull. This Pennsylvania-bred is modestly bred, but has shown some speed in morning works, and trainer John Servis has a very good 19% win rate with first-time starters. Plus, he gets an outside post, which is a big help for a horse making his first career start: jockey Frankie Pennington will not have to worry that a slightly slow break will leave him buried on the rail. We think 6-1 is a square price on Baby Bull, and will bet him to win. The bet: Parx, Race 1, $25 to win on 8-Baby Bull.

Parx, Race 3, 1:19 pm ET

$16,000 Claiming, 7 furlongs, dirt, 3 & Up

The 3/2 morning line choice in this claiming race is 3-Untangled Truth, who is favored primarily because of his speed figures, along with the fact that he has some early speed. We hope he gets bet like Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont Stakes, because we think he's a mammoth underlay, as his lone win in four career starts was a wire-to-wire score that was aided greatly by a Parx dirt course that greatly favored speed. It was also in a shorter race, 5 1/2 furlongs, and today's distance, 7 furlongs, is a much, much tougher distance, irrespective of track condition, to win on the front end. A horse must be vastly superior to his rivals to wire a field at 7 furlongs; we don't see that in Untangled Truth, and will be lining up to bet against what we think is a bad favorite.

We like 2-The Carlbrook Kid. His last race was not great, a 7th-place finish in a starter allowance, but we are willing to draw a line through that one, as he broke slowly, and was never really in the race. His two races prior to that, both in starter allowance company, were very strong; a repeat of either will get him to the winner's circle today. We see him getting a good stalking trip from his inside post, and putting away the speed horses down the stretch. We will bet him to win at 5-1. The bet: Parx, Race 3, $30 to win on 2-The Carlbrook Kid.

Parx, Race 8, 3:34 pm ET

Starter Allowance, 6 furlongs, dirt, Fillies & Mares 3 & Up

This starter allowance, for females who have started for a claiming price of $12,500 or less since the beginning of 2018, drew a field of ten. The heavy favorite is 7-Barley Jack, who has been running, and running well, at a much higher level than this. A class drop like this would normally be a negative sign for us, but in mid to late November, we think it makes sense: trainer Jamie Ness has what appears to be a fit and sound mare, who's ready and eager to run, but this time of year the available races are much, much more limited than they are in the summer, or even earlier in the fall. If you have a horse who's ready to run, it makes more sense to us to run her, rather than turn her out for the winter, and this is as good a spot as any. We think Barley Jack is ready here, and if so, the rest of the field is running for second money. We will take 7/5, and bet her to win. The bet: Parx, Race 8, $50 to win on 7-Barley Jack.

That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.

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