Post time is 2:36 pm ET.
Above is the results from key race that an entry, 9 -Hourly (15/1), participated in on Oct. 16. He is going in todays’ 5th at Mahoning Valley. This is a one-mile race for three-year-olds’ and up which have not won two races in a year.
A key race is defined as one which two or more entrants returned to win from the same race. This is being spotlighted for you because if you pay attention to these, it may be worth further examination.
B Dubya won while moving down in price and up in competition (N2Y to N3Y)
Kinghood moved down in class and scored a win
Malibu West stayed at the same level (tougher company than today) and won
Proud Maxx and Midnight Run raced last at todays’ level and neither won
Istillgotiut won with a step up in class.
Leo D moved down in class and just missed.
Does this make you want to make a wager on Hourly? Not necessarily; however, it will be worth including him in your exotic wagers.
We ran the Equibase numbers thru SmartCap and surfaced these –
Best last is a tossup between 4 – Talk To The Media (6/1), 7 – Kentucky Breeze (20/1) and 9 – Hourly (15/1).
Best overall for speed is 8 – Father Dennis (5/2).
Best overall class is 1 – Viski Jones (8/1).
There is a hodgepodge of choices, so I am going to take a shot on a couple of wagers:
Exacta Box 1-3-9
Trifecta Box 1-3-9-8
I am also going to do small wagers on 1 & 9 to win and place.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrant's best last race with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? Because it identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape usually win.
The figures on the right represent its overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from a second race at Penn National. To the right of this is this race's class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this race, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. Given the #10 having the best last and close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. Which it did win going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley and Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
A few rules of the road…
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this chart tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
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More details at SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.