Friday Horse Racing: RT and SmartCap pick the 4th race at chilly Churchill Downs
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Today’s race is from Churchill Downs where it will be sunny and 40 degrees at post time. We’re focusing on the 4th race. It’s a $20K claimer for three year olds’ and up which have started for a claiming price for $10K or less in 2019. The race will be contested over a one turn mile.
With Equibase figures, SmartCap has identified three contenders.
#3 California Swing (3/1) has best last figures
#7 Ruler of the Nile (5/2) has best overall class and speed numbers
#5 Gettysburg (12/1) has close numbers for best overall and best class
Reviewing the pp’s, Gettysburg, has been on turf or tapeta for the past ten races and with trainer Dee Poulos’ 9% win rate from turf to dirt, he’s a toss. Ruler Of The Nile is stretching out and we know its pedigree on the sire side, Pioneer Of The Nile, is legendary. However, his dam was a sprinter and the results show – having his best races at six furlongs and alternately, his worst races going further than seven. That leaves California Swing, who is taking a class drop coming from a $58K purse to a $44K purse. It is also second shot off a claim for trainer Kim Hammond where she and jockey Rodney Prescott at 22% w’s. Finally, the best last numbers indicate the horses condition. You should be able to get a square price on this gelding and look for Prescott to stay away from todays’ speed duel and close with him in the stretch.
We’re taking a win bet with twice as much to place on #3 California Swing.
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SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one below, per race, when you order SmartCap.
The figures along the left represent each entrant's best last race with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? Because it identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape usually win.
The figures on the right represent its overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number. This is from a second race at Penn National. To the right of this is this race's class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this race, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. Given the #10 having the best last and close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. Which it did win going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Additionally, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley and Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
A few rules of the road…
You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this chart tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
Full Card - $29.95 or $4.95 per race.
More details at SmartCap@bettorsinsider.com.