Mahoning Valley Race Course
November 11, 2019
Weather: 46° with rain
Last week, Mahoning played to front runners and with the rain today, this will not change.
Today, we are going to focus on the first race, a $23.5K allowance for 3yo+ that are non-winners other than maiden, claiming starter or Ohio bred OR NW2.
As you’ll see, these conditions are important.
SmartCap has identified one horse as a major contender for this race and that is the #4 – Galactic (4/1) - he has the best last figures and the best overall class figures by a relatively large margin. His overall speed figure, an 83.4 is close to the #1’s, so he becomes a player for us.
Consulting with his pp’s, a few things surface. First, he has had two solid performances in the slop and second, his second race back, where he won, was a $25K allowance optional claimer. Further investigating shows that the value of that aoc victory, in terms of purse, was $26,400 and today’s is $23.5, therefore making him a winner above this level. Of the two previous aoc races, both were unprotected as any registered person could have claimed him (denoted by the N next to the race conditions in the pp’s). Third, this trainer and jockey both have solid numbers individually and together. Finally, he was gelded on 3/19 of this year and except for his first race after that, he has been a warrior.
Next, looking at the entire fields pp’s, the favorite, #4 – Lunar Heat (9/5), is coming off two wins and will take a lot of money in this. According to Equibase, those two races were at a class rating of 90 & 83 respectively where he ran a 91/90 and 88/83, yes, exceeding the par, yet not besting Galactics’ last two of 86/97 and 104/84.
Lastly, Galactic comes out of a competitive Key race where the ones above him scored a victory.
Summarily, for the first at Mahoning Valley today, you have a good horse, a good jockey and a good trainer. Those equal a good bet.
SmartCap is an algorithm-based system that helps the horse player identify key contenders in a race.
Developed by a math prodigy from West Point, you will receive a graph like the one above, per race, when you order SmartCap.
Below is from Penn National, race 2
The figures along the left represent each entrants best last race with the top number being the speed and the bottom number is class. In this example, #10 comes out clearly ahead in class and speed which gives him an edge. Why is that number important? Because it identifies the horse that is in shape and like human sports competitions, the person(s) in the best shape usually win.
The graph on the right represents its overall rating. When you look at this graph, you will notice on the top far left, the track and race number... To the right of this is this races’ class rating and its money – money being the separator for class. So, in this race, we have a $5K race and the class rating is 73. The 73 is the rating set by Equibase. At Penn 2 for this, you have a horse who raced a 62.9 overall versus a 106.2 overall. Now, #7 has a slightly better speed rating yet has been racing against lesser competition. Given the #10 having the best last and close speed rating, and by far best class, it would be a play. Which it did win going away.
If you are unfamiliar with Equibase, they are the most reliable source for PP’s in the industry. Moreover, one reason why you may see us posting picks to the same tracks is Equibase installed their own GPS technology at Mahoning Valley and Penn National and is the official timer at Golden Gate, Laurel, Woodbine and Pimlico.
A few rules of the road…
• You must consult your PP’s regardless of what this graph tells you – especially in routes because this is where jockey skill makes the paramount difference. You can have the best horse in a certain race and if the jockey cannot work out a solid trip, it’s done.
• Steer clear from an off track. Always check the weather before placing your order.
• We are only providing you with a tool to identify potential horses in a race. You are directly responsible for your own wagering.
• Pick your spots. It is a losing proposition to bet every race.
• We rarely handicap maiden races and two-year-old races can be daunting – again, consult your pp’s before indulging.
$29.95 for an entire card or $4.95 per race. If you are interested, email SmartCap@bettorsinder.com.