Saturday Horse Racing: RT returns with picks for today's stakes races at Laurel Park from his evolving SmartCap program

His first race goes off at 1:30 pm EDT.
Horse Racing
Horse RacingPhoto by Mathew Schwartz on Unsplash.


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I figured it was time to stop being MIA, so here are three stakes races at Laurel.

I am including some graphs from our homegrown program that is clipping at 45% winners and 78% itm as of yesterday. If you have an interest in having us cap a single race, or an entire card with this program, inquire at for pricing.

Two quick notes

· Kansas City will cover the 5.5 versus Baltimore Sunday.

· I have Improbable in the Pennsylvania Derby.

1:30 pm EDT The Selima Stakes

Laurel 3

$200K - 1.0625 Furlongs – Turf – 2 year old girls

#2 – Sunset Promise (3/1) comes in with the best last numbers and an excellent showing in the $500K Exacta Systems Juvenile Stakes at Kentucky Downs. This is a drop in class and he will take the lead at the turn before pulling away late. #7 Sharing looms the danger.

My bets:

$50/win #2

$100/place #2

2:30 pm EDT The Laurel Futurity

Laurel 5

$200K – 1.0625 Furlongs – Turf – 2 year old boys

#7 – Doc Boy (6/1). Any time I see a turf horse out of Lemon Drop Kid, a fantastic turf sire, my eyes perk. Such is the case with Doc Boy. In each of his three races, he has an increase of E Base speed figures and I look for a big improvement again. #4 – Field Pass, will be a heavy favorite and I suspect the 6/1 morning line has a sporting chance of increasing.

My bets:

$100/win #7

$200/place #7

3:00 pm EDT The Bald Eagle Derby

Laurel 6

$150K – 1.5 Miles – Turf – 3-year-old boys 7 girls

Below is the chart from our SmartCap program.

The number to the right of each yellow box, adjacent to par, is the horses speed. The bottom number (green highlighted box with $$) is its class.

I am posting this because class will play the biggest factor in this race due to the distance.

You’ll notice that most of the entrants ended up with a negative class number; two only have a positive number. This speaks to the competition each horse has traveled in.

In this case, #4 Jais’s Solitude, has scored close to the top speed number of 93.5 with a 90.9 yet has the highest class rating - a good omen.

SmartCap chart for the Bald Eagle Derby.
SmartCap chart for the Bald Eagle Derby.RT

This second graph is effectively the same thing in terms of determining class and speed; however, this is its last race. As with humans, the horse in the best shape will be a competitive factor in the race. Shape is a true indicator of todays’ performance.

SmartCap Last Race.
SmartCap Last Race.RT

You’ll notice #6 Channel Island, has the best last speed and class. The 4 has the second best. Better class and in shape makes this Afleet Alex gelding a live play. There are two other mitigating factors why I am betting him.

1) He was gelded three months ago which accelerates his musculoskeletal makeup, which perhaps gave trainer Eddie Kenneally (29% wins) the impetus to run him in the $250K New Kent County Virginia Derby.

2) The second is his last race chart - JAIS'S SOLITUDE rated off the pace two wide, edged closer three widearound the far turn, came four wide into the lane, closed determinedly outside and ran out of ground.

This race will be an extra two furlongs and jockey Feargal Lynch (17% winners) will have him flying in the stretch.

My bets:

$250/win #4

$500/Place #4

$20 exacta box 4-6

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