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Thoroughbreds

Thoroughbreds Monday - McMudder Picks Races at Parx, Delaware Park

Mick McMudder

Mick McMudder

Pace figures vs speed figures. When do pace figures matter more?

he Dan Horn Stakes at Monmouth Sunday is a fine example of pace making the race. Irish Strait went to the front and led for the first 6 furlongs looking content on the front. The problem? He was going faster each quarter and ended up running a sub 1:10 6f. As a result, Golden Brown was able to pounce in the lane and Irish Strait had too little left to stay in front. If, instead, Irish Strait had slowed the pace to a 1:11 6f would he have been able to seal the deal? Mick believes that he would have. The pace determined the race. But the punters (including Mick) should have seen that Irish Strait can’t see out races beyond a mile when he goes faster than 1:11 for 6f.

Monday’s Weather: Sunny and warmer with possible late day showers.

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Parx Race 1 (12:55 p.m. ET)
1-Colby worked a shockingly good 4f bullet on June 15. Does that mean she is ready? With trainer John Servis it usually means they are ready. This one will need to go breaking from the rail. Not many $440K yearlings make their debuts at Parx. 4-Lulu’s Roadrunner is sired by Uptowncharlybrown who gets precocious ones quite often. The work tab is solid and Ed Coletti is 23% with 2 year olds. Coletti’s other runner, 8-Angel Raphael, is from a very good family but they are not as precocious. This one may hit the board on class alone.
Parx Race 1
$10 W/P/S 1-Colby
$2 Exacta box 1,4
$1 Trifecta box 1,4,8

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Parx Race 4 (2:16 p.m.)
The top two finishers still eligible for this condition out of this same race on June 3 re-appear here. 1-Sea Swap got the worst of it when 6-Via Castagna got taken down. 7-Silver Assault ran in front of Via Castagna at this level in May but seems to like to get in tight, too. Pace should make this race as Sea Swap will need to break well to avoid getting squeezed along the rail. If he can manage that and get a lead with a sub-0:23 first quarter, this race will be his. Otherwise, look for Via Castagna to press the pace and come by in the lane only to be passed by Silver Assault on the line.
Parx Race 4
$10 W/P/S 7-Silver Assault
$2 Exacta box 6,7
$1 Trifecta box 1,6,7

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Delaware Race 1 (1:15 p.m.)
7-Buff’s in Love enters here off one of her best lifetime races and it appears that the connections are now committed to keeping her on turf. Her greatest challenges are the post position and the pace. If she gets carried very wide on the turn, her race will be over. 4-Miss Tschetter seems to need everything to go right to get the 5f but will be on the pace. If she gets any break, she could steal this one off the front. Look for one half of the entry to pick up the pieces. Which half? Go with 1A-Tarafirma, her works are quicker.
Delaware Race 1
$10 W/P/S 7-Buff’s in Love
$2 Exacta box 4,7
$1 Trifecta box 1,4,7

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Delaware Race 5 (3:15 p.m.)
3-Intrepid Citizen and 4-Brickyard Kitten are both ageless wonders with virtually the same race records at the age of 9. Both are from top notch barns but give the advantage to Intrepid Citizen, who is making his second start of the season and whose first was solid but a little short. Today’s step back in distance should help. 10-Stand Guard has not been on turf in a while. He seems to like to finish third so that should fit here.
Delaware Race 5
$10 W/P/S 3-Intrepid Citizen
$2 Exacta box 3,4
$1 Trifecta box 3,4,10

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MICK’S QUICKIES

Parx Race 8 (4:04 p.m.)
3-Grazen Honor gets off the weeds and cuts back in distance. Two turns cutting back to 7f is a great angle at Parx.

Delaware Race 3 (2:15 p.m.)
8-Barton Holt makes his first start as an 8-year-old in a non 2 in his lifetime condition. Mick is picking him . . . why? It’s all about trainer Darci Rice. Until she loses a race, you gotta pick her horse.