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Tacitus won the Wood Memorial. RT doesn’t think he’s going to win the Belmont Stakes.
Tacitus won the Wood Memorial. RT doesn’t think he’s going to win the Belmont Stakes.|NYRA / Elsa Lorieu
Thoroughbreds

The Belmont Stakes: RT likes the breeding of a longshot

Post time is 6:37 pm EDT

RT

The great Secretariat winning the Belmont.
The great Secretariat winning the Belmont.
RT

Belmont Part 2 – Let’s Go Out A Winner!

I have resigned my position, and this will be my last time posting. I want to thank all the great people at Bettors Insider. You are world class people who tirelessly publish the best sports betting site on the web. I wish you all great success and much prosperity.

As Jackie Gleason used to say . . . “and awaaaaaaaaaay we go.”

Last year, CBS News’ “60 Minutes” did a piece on Adolfo Cambiaso, a massively successful Argentinian polo player/trainer/owner/breeder who is cloning champion horses. https://cbsn.ws/2pbwiuL. Among many fascinating pieces to this story was when asked if he can tell the difference between his first champion horse that he cloned, Aiken Cura, and its offspring, his answer was there were small personality nuances. In terms of strength, speed and endurance, they were identical. Of course.

This is a testament to why breeding plays an all-important role when you are determining the ability of a 1.5 mile race.

When you see names like Tapit, AP Indy, Curlin , Medaglia d’Oro in the entries’ bloodlines, what do you immediately conclude? Router. How about Capote, Dr. Fager or Groovy? Sprinter. How about Lemon Drop Kid? Turf. This is why you hear horsepersons and handicappers make the statement, “he appears that he wants to go longer.” Or, “she’s better suited for turf.” They are who they were.

Considering the distance, jockey, condition of the horse and weather, I conclude that the race will shape up this way – and as a side note, I refrain from buying in to statistics such as a deep closer has only won this once in the last ten years. That, to me is like flipping a coin, getting heads sixteen times in a row and saying the odds are in favor for a tails. No, it’s not. It’s still a 50/50 proposition.

I believe you will see a hotter pace than anticipated. 1 – Joevia, 4 – Tax, 9 – War Of Will, 6 – Spinoff and 8 – Intrepid Heart, are all going to be pushing it fast through the back stretch. War Of Will is going to attempt controlling the pace by being in front and it will not work today and his breeding will show that coupled with his campaign being gruesome. The distance will fry him, and the skills of Tyler Gaffliones’ contemporaries will pass him at the top of, or down the stretch. Look for Mike Smith on 5 – Bourbon War, Joel Rosario on 7 – Sir Winston, Julien Leparoux on 3 – Master Fencer and Junior Ortiz on 10 – Tacitus to stay near enough to have a feel for the pace, yet not get caught up in trying make a run at it until the perfect moment. This race will come down to the stretch run.

My Belmont Stakes Bets:
I really like the late fractions and the breeding of Sir Winston and I believe he’ll be the biggest benefactor of the pace.
$100/w, $200/p on Sir Winston
Exacta, Trifecta and Super box with Bourbon War, Tacitus, Sir Winston, Master Fencer and War Of Will.

Have a great time at Elmont if you are going and knock ‘em dead at the windows . . .or app . . . or kiosk.

RT