Thoroughbreds Sunday - McMudder on Belmont, Laurel, Monmouth
Sunday racing in the Summer is one of the great joys of going to the track. For some reason, especially after big race Saturdays, Sundays are more relaxed and are a happy time to go see the ponies. It is an especially good day to introduce new people to the game since the pace is slower and no one should be taking calls from the office. Bring the family along and no one needs to take calls from them either.
And the tracks have started to notice. More are putting on a good show for families on weekends with Saturdays for the punters and Sundays for the families. Let’s hope this continues so that we have another generation of horse racing in America. This writer thinks a thoroughbred in full stride is a beautiful thing, even if the winner is not on my slip.
Storms are coming (at least it’s not winter coming . . . ). Hope turf races stay on but later in the day may be tough. Keep fake-MTOs in mind.
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BELMONT/Race 2 (2:02 p.m. ET)
Start the day with a wide-open maiden claimer for NY bred fillies. In some ways, this is the greatest drop a horse can take in race conditions, going from a maiden special weight to a maiden claimer. The drop is even more precipitous when the perceived value of the filly is greater than the claim level based on either purchase price or broodmare value. In the first case, dropping to an easier level to secure a victory is sound business since once you buy them what you paid doesn’t matter anymore (sunk costs!!!). The fillies that have lots of residual value tend not to end up getting dropped but rather get shipped to lesser tracks to stay protected. 2-She’s Not Bluffing took the write down last out in an ill-fated turf attempt. So is this really her best surface? This is not a barn that succeeds on the stretch out. 5-Recess comes from some trainer named Pletcher and owner named Repole so the $80K price cut from the 2 year old purchase price is the cost of doing business. This one should benefit from the return to the turf. 11-Rossellini needs the class relief and this will be the second start off a layoff which is a positive angle. The last race should have helped so look for improvement here. The post position is a question.
Belmont Race 2
$10 W/P/S 11-Rossellini
$2 Exacta box 5,11
$1 Trifecta box 2,5,11
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LAUREL/Race 5 (3:11)
This is a fairly low level long turf race so the horses in here are either dropping or have been at this level previously. 8-Mutaraabit dropped to the $25K maiden level last out in a victory in order to qualify to be here. Seldom do 5 year olds make sense coming off maiden victories but here this one does. 11-Rule Yourself just missed in this position last out and should get a similar trip this time. If he sits a little closer, the outcome may be much better. 12-Junipero Avenue steps up in company but was improved at this course and distance last out. Maybe a step behind the top two but the breeding says age may bring improvement.
Laurel Race 5
$10 W/P/S 11-Rule Yourself
$2 Exacta box 8,11
$1 Trifecta box 8,11,12
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MONMOUTH/Race 2 (1:18)
A NJ bred maiden race. Not quite the same quality as the NY bred race above. This race is all about New Jersey so the pick needs to be the filly ridden by Jersey Joe Bravo, 6-Politely Crowned. Everything is lined up for this one to breakthrough: top local trainer, top local jockey, outside post and small field. The other John Mazza entrant, 5-Midnight Witch, looks like she may belong but the 18 month break is never a good sign. 4-Lady Express goes for top percentage trainer Larry Rivelli and this barn wins with firsters. The question is about why she is a firster at 5.
Monmouth Race 2
$10 W/P/S 6-Politely Crowned
$2 Exacta box 4,6
$1 Trifecta box 4,5,6
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MICK’S QUICKIES
Monmouth Race 3 (1:45): 5-Viradia gets a soft spot to show her stuff. Trainer Steve Asmussen doesn’t go to the beach often but today should be his day.
Laurel Race 7 (4:16): 5-Tapito finally gets to the races after tons of works. Bred to be good and comes from a good firster barn.
Belmont Race 3 (2:34): 3-Potomac won a stakes race last out and gets a break and drops in company? Mick smells a rat. Instead look for consistent warrior, 6-Bitumen, to reward connections for moving him up. Claimed for $10K two back and running for $50K today.