Thoroughbreds: McMudder again battles the turf and the weather to find Sunday winners at Belmont, Laurel Park and Parx

Rain and turf. Mick is growing crazed by all of the changes to the turf racing this week. Key races at Belmont came off but everything at Laurel stayed on. The problem at Laurel was that the track was really firm and the expected cut in the surface didn’t occur. Lots of turf pedigrees are coming through, even when their form cycle coming in has not been favorable. So what does Mick look for in a turf pedigree? Obviously, it starts with the sire and his gets’ proclivities. The more Euro, the more turf (and usually distance, too) but amongst American sires, there are certain sire lines that have long standing success on turf. Next comes the dam where the focus is on close up relatives, the dam herself as a runner and any sibs. Going back much further becomes less productive. The last angle is how the runner has faired on off going if there are no turf starts. Oddly, some runners that fair well on slop fair well on turf, too.

Picks for April 28, 2019:

Winds should subside and be replaced by the potential for more rain. Mick is hoping that turf stays on and has handicapped accordingly.

Belmont Race 3
1-Walkoff will be the favorite at post time just due to connections but the pedigree says long and the works say that connections were hoping for more ground. 5-Indigestion is interesting even though connections do not excel with these kind. The works are really solid and the price should be fair. Of all of these, he may be the one that should be at this level where as all of the others are trying to cash in before being completely exposed.
$10 W/P/S 5-Indigestion
$2 Exacta 5/1

Belmont Race 9 License Fee Stakes
6 furlongs on the weeds for the girls means the horseplayer is yet again faced with deciding between stretching out and cutting back. 7-Fear No Evil is proven over course and distance, even on a yielding surface on two occasions. Today should be no different and this one gets reunited with Joe Bravo who was onboard for her last victory. 6-Fire Key is another one that was a winner on this surface at Belmont. She gets the services of Jose Ortiz, a plus for any horse. 3-Albertville is the Euro in the race and those good tracks in Germany were more like soft at Belmont so she fits here, too.
$10 W/P/S 7-Fear No Evil
$2 Exacta box 3,6,7
$1 Trifecta Box 3,6,7

Laurel Race 1
The morning line favorite is a 7-year-old maiden. How bad can these be? Bad. 4-Gold Cadillac has the pedigree to move up on turf and this one is half to a really good one. Connections are not great first on grass but it may not matter. Instead, look at 3-Indigo Midnight to upset here. The pedigree is, well, interesting. Mick has never heard of the sire, this is the first runner for the sire and the trainer has never won at first asking with any horse. Today’s the day. Use 1-Sunrisebernsteini to round out the exotics even if she is 7.
$10 W/P/S 3-Indigo Midnight
$2 Exacta 3,4/1,3,4
$1 Trifecta 3,4/1,3,4/1,3,4

Laurel Race 4
2-Frank’sgunisloaded needs to show that he can finish races by going by horses rather than just closing gaps. Second race with Jamie Ness is a great angle and this one should be rolling late, if he takes to the turf. 3-Makes Mo Cents fits Mick’s off track form and pedigree making a turf horse and must be used here. 4-Celtic Treasure has the pedigree for turf and had the top speed fig last out, although it was on dirt. This one appears to be on the improve.
$10 W/P/S 2-Frank’sgunisloaded
$2 Exacta 2/3,4
$0.50 Trifecta box 2,3,4

Parx Race 1
5-Trunk of Money makes her first start for Scott Lake after leaving the Todd Pletcher barn. Leaving Pletcher is not usually a positive but it is here since she gets a class relief and Lake is really good changing things up to find value in other’s discards. The works are solid and the price should be fair. 3-Lil Bullette makes the trip up I-95 for trainer Cathal Lynch. This one didn’t seem to care for the surface last time but the Parx strip has been highly variable of late. If she comes, she is live. The entry rounds things out nicely.
$10 W/P/S 5-Trunk of Money
$2 Exacta Box 3,5
$1 Trifecta Box 1,3,5

Parx Race 2
5-Secret Secret ran a winning race last out and got beaten by a horse that has come back to win again. A repeat of that effort will win here. 9-Burntwood is first off the claim, is dropping, and gets a new and patient rider. All are positive and this one should be close.
$10 W/P/S 5-Secret Secret
$2 Exacta Box 5,9

Mick’s Quick Picks

Belmont Race 8: 7-She’s Trouble should be trouble for this field. Today should be her day . . . finally.

Laurel Race 6: 1-Pizmo Time returns to turf after a winter on the shelf. This one is better in the second back but the price is too tempting in a race that is wide open

Parx Race 3: 7-Billy Badpay has run two straight solid races and gets similar company here. The 9-year-old just keeps going.