Thoroughbreds: McMudder picks the stakes races at Aqueduct and Laurel Park and a lone Parx race.
Handicapping turf races all for on and off. Is it worth it? Mick seldom thinks so. He usually prefers to just skip races that come off the turf if he hasn’t handicapped them in depth. But sometimes, especially when you need to pick mandatory races in contests or consecutive races when going horizontally, you need to handicap races based on surface, probable starters, and pace scenarios. And they can all change if the surface changes. The best suggestion here is to take the three most likely scenarios and have each scenario ready when you need it. Of course it leads to more work but it will pay off when that key Pick 6 race comes off and you have the key horse and no one else does.
Picks for April 20, 2019:
It’s gonna rain….again. Hopefully all of the stakes races will stay on the turf. Just in case, Mick has comments on ALL of the Stakes races…enjoy.
Aqueduct Race 6 The Woodhaven Stakes
Wow. Most of the field has never been on the turf. Hard to imagine for a stakes race at this point in the year but that’s the case. So will one of the first timers on the green jump up and show they belong? If one does, it should be 5-Family Biz, a very good runner that has been slightly below the stakes dirt competition. The change to turf fits his pedigree and he should pay a fair price. Todd Pletcher’s Florida invader, 4-Clint Maroon, brings the best current turf form and should be in for a piece. Pletcher’s other runner, 6-Empire of War, is undefeated on turf and both wins were on less than firm courses, a plus on a wet day.
$10 W/P/S 5-Family Biz
$2 Exacta Box 4,5,6
$1 Trifecta Box 4,5,6
Aqueduct Race 8 New York Stallion Stakes
5-Newly Minted is the best filly in this stakes race. By a lot. If she repeats her single race, she should win by a bunch. So how to play this one? Deep verticals. 6-Kid Is Frosty, 8-Stonesintheroad, and 9-Bangle Gal should all be around at the end. Mixing them up should capture some value but the hope needs to be that the 6 or the 9 find the place position. Still, worth the wager.
$10 W/P/S 5-Newly Minted
$2 Exacta 5/6,8,9
$1 Trifecta 5/6,8,9/6,8,9
$0.10 Superfecta 5/6,8,9/6,8,9/6,8,9
Laurel Race 5 Frank Whiteley Jr. Stakes
Boys going fast on dirt. 3-Home Run Maker returns to his preferred 6f distance after not finishing out the 7f last out. 8-Rockinn On Bye seems to always get a piece of these at today’s distance. 5-Lewisfield won a MD bred stake last out at today’s distance and is always close with today’s company. All three of these guys show up when they need to and should be included.
$10 W/P/S 3-Home Run Maker
$2 Exacta box 3,5,8
$1 Trifecta box 3,5,8
Laurel Race 7 Primonetta Stakes
2-Ms Locust Point romped last out and could have won by much more. The issue is the fast turnaround. That is not an angle that has worked for her in a very long time. At the opposite end of the spectrum is 8-DJ’s Favorite who is making her debut in Stakes company but has been very progressive and is coming off her best speed figure to date. 5-Shimmering Aspen is the best home team hope here and comes off a freshening following back to back disappointing efforts. 3-Cairenn has been better at 7f but comes in here off a solid effort and should be charging late. She definitely gets a piece but it may be a small one.
$10 W/P/S 8-DJ’s Favorite
$2 Exacta Box 2,8
$1 Trifecta 2,8/2,8/3,5
$0.10 Superfecta 2,8/2,8/3,5/3,5
Parx Race 4
7-Sunshine Crusader gets stepped up 3x from the claim last out but Richard Bracho keeps the mount. And he wins 25% for this barn. But he gets the ultimate equipment change…he was gelded since his last race. Sub 20 day turnaround on a gelding seems aggressive but he must have shown something significant in the mornings to get stepped up and turned quickly. 5-Pellagrino has been progressive of late but he hasn’t been quite good enough yet and is better underneath.
$10 W/P/S 7-Sunshine Crusader
$2 Exacta 7/5
Mick’s Quick Picks
Aqueduct Race 9: New York Stallion Stakes for boys brings a big field and horses all coming out of the same races…save one. 4-Bankit went on the Derby trail where he….flopped. Which explains why he is here. Be happy he is here.
Laurel Race 6: 11-Proforma seems to always bring his A game but his A+ game seems to show up on turf. Gets top jockey and cuts back in distance. Still a play if the race comes off. Outside gate is a plus, too.
Laurel Race 8: 6-La Moneda is so well considered by jockey Junior Alvarado that he is headed down I-95 to ride here rather than having multiple Stakes mounts in NYC.
Laurel Race 9: 6-Las Setas has trampled her competition in her last three starts. Nothing here should stand in the way of 4 straight.
Laurel Race 10: 2-Alwaysmining will be capturing an invite to the Preakness here.
Laurel Race 11: 8-Real Story brings trainer Iggy Correas back to Laurel with a quality runner. Gets jockey Robby Albarado to fly in for the mount.