Thoroughbreds: Garrity’s Saturday stakes picks for Keeneland, Oaklawn Park, Santa Anita and . . . Charles Town. Expect a lot of slop.

We're back for a Saturday, and the prevailing theme of the day should be: thank goodness this is happening today, and not in two weeks. The weather is terrible; it is raining just about about everywhere east of the Mississippi River. There's a decent number of stakes today, but the rain is going to affect nearly all of them. We feel particularly bad for Charles Town in West Virginia: this is their biggest card of the year, a 13-race program highlighted by the $1 million Charles Town Classic, and the rain figures to make the track a sloppy mess all day. That's too bad.

But rather than dwell on the negative, we will focus on the positive: we're glad this is happening today, and not on Kentucky Derby day two weeks hence. The Derby has been run in the slop before, and it will be run in the slop again, but it's a better event when the sun is shining. We'll hope that the weather gods are getting this out of their system today, and the good folks in Louisville will be rewarded with a glorious spring day in a fortnight.

And we will play some races. We've looked at stakes at Oaklawn, Keeneland, and Santa Anita, and we'll also take a swing at a couple of the races at Charles Town. Let's go.

Oaklawn dealt with this rain the past few days, but it seems to have passed to their east as of Saturday morning, and we are expecting a fast track by this afternoon. The Rainbow Stakes goes off as Race 7, with a scheduled post time of 5:20 pm. It's a 6-furlong dirt sprint for Arkansas-bred 3-year-olds. The race drew seven entrants, including the speedy 3-Rusty Cage, whose presence virtually guarantees a rapid early pace. Because of that, we're looking to a horse who can come from off the pace, and that is 2- No Debate. He broke his maiden last out by coming from off the pace, and this was his first career start, and this probably means he has ability, because winning first out is not easy. A repeat of that performance should be good enough to win here. The 8/5 favorite, 7-Tapit Star, looks talented, and we like his outside post, but we think he is better going around two turns than sprinting. We will play No Debate to win at 5-1, and we will also box No Debate and Tapit Star in the exacta. The bets: Oaklawn Park, Race 6, $20 to win on 3-Rusty Cage; $5 exacta box, 3 (Rusty Cage) with 7 (Tapit Star).

At Keeneland, the Grade 2 Elkhorn goes off as Race 9, with a post time of 5:30 pm Eastern. It's a mile and a half turf race for older horses; 10 are entered. Though as of press time Saturday morning changes had not been announced, we are expecting this race to stay on the grass, and we are expecting that the turf at Keeneland, which was yielding Friday, will be less than firm. Good would be our guess, but that's just a stab.

We would have liked the favorite, trainer Mike Maker's 10-Zulu Alpha, on a firm course, but on grass with some cut in it, we absolutely love him. His last two starts on soft turf were both wins in graded stakes, including a win in the Grade 3 Sycamore, which was at Keeneland, at the same 12-furlong distance he will be running today. We expect a big performance from Zuzu Alpha, and we will bet him to win enthusiastically. He's 8/5 on the morning line, and we hope that he goes off at something closet to that price. The bet: Keeneland, Race 9. $50 to win on 10-Zulu Alpha.

Out at Santa Anita, the weather will not be a factor; they will be running on fast and firm. The lone stakes on the Santa Anita card is the Grade 2 Kona Gold, which goes as Race 5, with a scheduled post time of 6:12 pm Eastern. It's a 6 1/2 furlong dirt sprint for horses 3 and up, and a short field of six is entered.

For a Southern California sprint, especially one named after a horse as fast as Kona Gold, there's a noticeable lack of early zip here, and we think that is going to set up the race for the speedy 2-Cistron. This John Sadler trainee has been running on the turf, but he's always had high early speed, and turf-to-dirt is an angle we've long liked. We think he goes right to the front and wires the field; we'll bet him to win at 5/2. The bet: Santa Anita Park, Race 5, $20 to win on 2-Cistron.

Charles Town in West Virginia runs a slots-fueled bonanza of stakes racing today, with 13 races with combined purses of more than $1.5 million, with the headliner being the $1 million Charles Town Classic. The 9th Race on the card is the Russell Road, a $75,000 stakes for horses 3 and up at 7 furlongs on the dirt. Post time is 4:29 pm. We are expecting the track at Charles Town to be sloppy today, and we are making a wet-track play here: it's 8-Colonel Sharp. This 6-year-old gelding is a wet-track aficionado: he's run in the slop 10 times, won 5 of them, and finished on the board in two others. His last off-track start, which was in an overnight stakes at Laurel in December, was sensational: he earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 in that race, and anything even close to that today will win this for him. We don't expect to get his 8-1 morning line price -- he will be bet -- but we'll bet him to win anyway. The bet: Charles Town, Race 9, $25 to win on 8-Colonel Sharp.

The Grade 2 Charles Town Classic is Race 11 on the card in Charles Town today. It's a mile and an eighth on the dirt for older horses. They will go to the post at 5.37 pm Eastern. In many ways, the fact that this race has a million-dollar purse is a sign of much that is wrong with horse racing today, at the risk of having to turn in our membership card in Curmudgeons Anonymous, we are going to leave the politics out of this, and focus solely on the race. Horses and their human connections are coming from far and wide for a piece of the big purse, and in handicapping the race, one must take into account the physical layout of the track: the dirt oval at Charles Town is 6 furlong in circumference, and that means the runners must negotiate three turns during the race. While bullrings are not new -- they've been around forever; some of our fondest racetrack memories are of the old bullring at the L.A. County Fair in Pomona -- it is unusual to have a race of this caliber, and with this purse, at one. These horses will be moving fast, and being able to negotiate the tight turns at Charles Town is mandatory to have a chance to win.

We like 9-War Story in here. This 7-year-old gelding loves running long -- he's actually been running in races longer than the 9-furlong distance today -- and he loves the slop. We think he will take to the tight turns at Charles Town the way a duck takes to water, and we think he's going to hit the wire first. We will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Charles Town, Race 11, $20 to win on 9-War Story.

That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.