Thoroughbreds: RT picks the Stronach 5, races at Laurel, Gulfstream, Golden Gate and Santa Anita

April 19, 2019

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Picking the Stronach 5 today

Musings:
Jeopardy James Update
Our boy runs away with it again
Yesterday, Jeopardy James only won $74,133.00
11-day total - $771,920.00
Astonishing.

Here’s a play for you tonight, or about 2 am Saturday morning, to be accurate. It’s the Group 1 Champagne Stakes at Randwick in Australia. Race 6 . . .take the 10-Lady Lupino (18-1), brilliant trainer Danny O’Brien saddles her and Damien Lane is up. The jockey is 25 and looks as if a razor has never had to cross his face. And yes, jealous is the word.

Also, if you’re feeling a little adventuresome, here’s another: and it’s by name only that I’m betting. There is something beforehand to explain -- you’re at Harrod’s and you see a pair of shoes that are perfect. You look at the price tag, $1100 (cuss under breath), Then you remember the long standing RT travel ism: “phuket, I’m on vacation” and you buy them, right? Yup.

So, in honor of the RT Vacation ism, take Phuket in the 2nd at Randwick.

For those of you who await with bated breath for my postings daily, you know that yesterday I bet $20 to win on a horse that, one day if I ever have grandchildren, as my married children do not seem to have that figured out yet (male yenta), can outrun, lost. I had earmarked the money for my church. Later in the day, the priest called and informed me that he found out the horse lost and that since it did lose, it is my duty to help tomorrow afternoon. Feeling anxious and quasi-desperate, I asked if they’d rather have the $150 or so instead? Seeing thru my veiled attempt at skirting this duty, he laughed and said, “how predictable, see you tomorrow, RT.”

I’m going. Phuket.

And finally, Big Gina calls and tells me (name), her granddaughter, my niece, sent an invite for her soon to be baby’s “gender identity party.” Big Gina explained that my niece wanted me to go, too. After the cursory “a what?”, I asked, “is this a thing, meaning, you’re kidding, right?” Nope. It’s a thing.

I’m going. Phuket.

Have a Happy Easter/Passover weekend, all.

Stronach 5

Leg 1
Laurel Park 9 $27K WMC F&M 3yo+ going 1 Mile Turf

The Skinny:
After inputting the details into the smartsheet and having it surface the best available, then re-consulting the pp’s, it was evident that all was exact and if AE 15-She’s Divine (7/2), gets entered in this race, she’ll win going away.

If not, look first for the next best and that is not easy. Adding quickly the total number of lengths combined of the twelve entered, they have cumulatively lost by 272 lengths in their respective last outs. Unusual, to say the least.

10-Wolverette (10/1) it’s time to exercise the saying…”bet on the jockey; not the horse.” OK, Trevor, bring her home first.

2-She’slikethewind (5/2) a maxim from legendary horse player Pittsburg Phil (a late 19th century owner/handicapper who amassed $2M at the track), “The majority of horses will go further over the turf than they will over the dirt course. Mud runners are usually good on the turf.” This sporadically raced 5yo mare, 8:0-2-3, had a 1.0625 mile race in the slop at LrL in December. In that, she set the pace, drew off in the stretch, only to get nipped at the wire. Her two previous races were on turf and both were competitive efforts, enough to win versus these.

Leg 2
Gulfstream Park 9 $35K Starter OC F&M 3yo’s going 6f

The Skinny:
As they make their way around the turn, the 2 – Elissa’s Secret, 3 – Dream On Lilly, and 4 – Charmaine’s Mia, will be in front of the rest and fighting for the win. GP, having a short stretch, is a test of mettle for the jockey. The jockey must right the horses head from the oddness of arcing their mounts’ body around a left angle, an unnatural movement for the horse, while making the turn. The younger they are, the more difficult they can be and if you will study the amount of accidents at the track, this is, more often than not, the place where it happens. So, when you believe there are a logical number of runners vying at this point, look for three things: 1) ability/game..does it fight or fade? 2) jockey skill 3) trainer skill

2 – Elissa’s Secret (7/2) very much a fan of trainer Saffie Joseph. In our email alerts are his entries and his skill is demonstrable in this filly. Prior to claiming her, Elissa had speed scores of 51-38-60 and her last two, while being in Saffie’s barn, have been 75 last, and 66. This type of improvement is an opportunity to embrace – like Cleveland getting Mayfield, you knew they would get much better and cover more often.

Leg 3
Gulfstream Park 10, $20K MCL 3yo+ 5f Turf

The skinny:
There are a lot of horses with early speed in this one and the 2 – Taylorsinitiation, will be on the lead.

1 – Luckytobeinamerica (6/1) talk about a troubled trip last out, this 2nd after gelded racer was moving in the stretch and got bumped by the 3. Fearing for his, and all others safety, Paco Lopez stood up in the irons, quick glanced over, saw all was clear and got going again. Seconds later, while gaining momentum and making his way down the stretch, the number 2 runs green and bumps him. Gathering Lucky again, Paco regains steam and sees an opening. While trying to exploit the opportunity, Paco gets pinched by the 7 & 1 forcing him to check for a third time while finally getting up for 4th, only 1.5 lengths back. In a 6 horse field, Luckytobeinamerica will get a cleaner trip and take down the 2 in the stretch.

Leg 4
Golden Gate 5 $50K Starter Allowance 3yo+ 1M Turf

The skinny:
This is more than likely the race which will bring in a longshot to knock many players out. Projecting a pace meltdown, the ones who can be the benefactors are -

4 – Robs Lucky Spirit (10/1) third race off a layoff and had an excellent work prior. Jockey Gomez will be able to tuck in, save ground, and hit the gas in stretch.

6 – Shifty Dancer (4/1) 2nd race after gelding and his improvement is a tell given his last E Base number and dramatic pick up in workouts. Shifty has rounded into shape and maturity, which can take this.

10 – Arch Anthem (6/1) going with leading jockey Abel Cedillo in this instance. Leading jockeys tend to bring in the wins in large fields and where rating their mount is an absolute.

11 – Cook Up A Storm (20/1) Throwing this one in the mix from a being suspicious mode. 4th leading jockey, William Antongeorgi chose this gelding over the 9 – Cosa Nostra, a horse which he won on last out

8 – Georgie Hyphen (3/1) Trying to make a case against trainer Peter Miller is not in the bettor’s interest. Coupling that with an Irish bred horse, who are bred for turf, is another reason to jump in.

Leg 5
The Great Race Place Santa Anita 5 $35K Claimers NW3, 3yo+ Turf

The skinny:
Another speed pace in this miler.

1 – Malibu Music (8/1) coming from off the bench and having a plethora of ever-increasing positive works, this class dropper gets the rail and hot jock Victor Espinoza (67% last 10, 23% last 30). This 5yo gray gelding has put up numbers at SA turf that’ll be sufficient to best this gang

7 – Encumbered (2/1) we may have a celebrity sighting at this one as Steve Wynn’s group owns him. Coming off a very game effort in last, Encumbered has a pressing style that jockey Mario Gutierrez will be able to relax him off the lead and move at the turn. Encumbered rounding back into form after last summers’ campaign of 3, Grade 1 races and a Grade 2.

The Bets:
Leg 1 -15, if entered. If not, 1-2
Leg 2 – 2
Leg 3 - 1
Leg 4 – 4-6-10-11-8
Leg 5 – 1-7

Total - $30. This includes 15-1-2 in first race, $10 with just the 15 and adding either #1 or #2 will be $20

Feel Better, John. Chemo is a bear. You’re my brother and I love you.