Thoroughbreds: Garrity picks a dry Keeneland and a soggy Oaklawn.
We're back for a Thursday, and once again, we'll be focusing our energies on Keeneland, where there's a nine-race card, and the races have big and deep fields. The weather forecast for central Kentucky the next few days is downright lugubrious, but today is supposed to be dry, if cloudy, so we'll play for fast and firm. We'll also throw in a couple of picks at Oaklawn, which has a nine race card: they will be running in the slop in Hot Springs, but we've found a couple of wet-track plays there that we like. Let's go.
Race 4 at Keeneland goes off at 2:45 pm Eastern. It's a 7-furlong maiden $20k claimer on the dirt. We like 8-Hey Prez. This 4-year-old son of Super Saver is winless in five starts, but he drops to a new level, and cuts back from a route to a sprint. We particularly like that last angle, and we like the fact that his Beyer Speed Figures give him an edge on the rest of the field. We also like the outside post. There's not much speed in here, so he will have to stay close early, but we think he has the tactical speed do that. We see him getting a good stalking trip, and taking over coming for home. We will bet him to win at 4-1. The bet: Keeneland, Race 4, $20 to win on 8-Hey Prez.
The 5th at Keeneland (post time: 3:17 pm Eastern) is another great betting race: it's a first-level allowance for 3-year-old fillies at a mile on the grass. Seven are entered. We like 5-Moravia: this English-bred filly just oozes class: she's by the Aga Khan's top-shelf French stallion Siyouni, and out of a Giant's Causeway mare. This is her first North American start, but she ran more than respectably against some pretty stiff competition in Ireland last summer, including a good second in a Group 3 race at Leapordstown. She's coming off a layoff, but we see stakes races in this filly's future. There are few hard and fast rules in handicapping, but one of them is this: When it comes to turf racing, European horses are better than American horses. We think she just outclasses this group. At 5-1, Moravia merits a play, and we will bet her to win. The bet: Keeneland, Race 5, $25 to win on 5-Moravia.
Race 9 at Keeneland (post time: 5:30 pm Eastern) is a 7 furlong dirt sprint for $20,000 maiden claimers 3 and up. This is pretty much the lowest level of maiden race offered at Keeneland, and the past performances of the horses shows it: There are some horses in here who look to have absolutely no shot. Because of that, we're picking 3-Tune In. This 3-year-old is making his first career start today, and he does so from the high-percentage Brad Cox barn, who wins at a 21% clip with firsters and a 24% overall. He has a long, steady pattern of morning works, which suggests that Cox will have him ready to fire at first asking. We will bet him to win at 3-1. Our only regret is that we can't play him in the exacta with a horse named Drop Out. The bet: Keeneland, Race 9, $20 to win on 3-Tune In.
Oaklawn will be wet today; we are expecting a downright sloppy track. Race 1 (post time: 2:30 pm Eastern) is a 6 furlong, $6,250 claiming dirt sprint for females 3 and up. We like 3-Ghosted in here. She just broke her maiden on a wet track, and we think this is the right level for her. We think she wins right back. We will bet her to win at 3-1. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 1, $20 to win on 3-Ghosted.
The 6th at Oaklawn is an allowance/optional claimer for older females at 6 furlongs on the dirt. Post time is 4:46 pm Eastern. We'd like 1a-Council Rules a little bit on a dry track, but on a wet track we love him: he's run on off tracks twice, and finished first and second in those two races. We will bet him to win at 2-1, and with our bet, we also get his stablemate, 1-Desert Madam. The bet: Oaklawn Park, Race 6, $25 to win on 1a-Council Rules.
That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.