Thoroughbreds: Garrity picks three at Keeneland and makes quick picks at Tampa Bay Downs and Mahoning Valley

We're back for some Wednesday action, and after a brief break, Keeneland is back too. Though we love the secondary tracks, what Andy Beyer called the "leaky-roof circuit," we are going to concentrate our play at Keeneland today, because the card is good, and the spring meeting at Keeneland is short (closing day is a week from Friday). We'll throw in a couple of quick plays at Tampa Bay Downs and Mahoning Valley, but we'll be focusing most of our juju on Kentucky.

There's another excellent and varied slate of races at Keeneland, with races on both surfaces, featuring a variety of ages and distances. The forecast does not predict much sunshine for central Kentucky, but it is supposed to be dry, and we are handicapping the races for fast and firm. We expect Mahoning and Tampa to be the same. So let's go.

Race 5 in Lexington (post time: 3:18 pm Eastern) is a baby race, 2-year-old fillies going 4 1/2 furlongs on the dirt. We could try to get cute here, and try to beat the hot favorite, 2-Nayibeth, who's 7/5 and who's trained by Wesley Ward, but we won't: we are going to pick her to win. Ward is a wizard with these juveniles, especially first time out: he wins at a 32% clip with first-time starters, which is amazing on its face, but is even more amazing when one considers that he very frequently starts multiple runners in these races, as he does here (he's got two in this one). Nayibeth has been working up a storm in the morning, which suggests that Ward has her razor-sharp for this, and breaking from the rail, we think she goes right to the front and never looks back. At the risk of being Captain Obvious, we'll make her the pick, and will bet her to win. The bet: Keeneland, Race 5, $25 to win on 2-Nayibeth.

The 6th at Keeneland (post time: 3:51 pm Eastern) is a very good race, a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds at a mile on the grass. There are a couple of well-bred and logical contenders here, including 1-Rochambeau, 4-Trade Deadline, and the Phipps-McGaughey homebred 9-Bakers Bay. Looking particularly live is Trade Deadline, who ran a good second in a similar spot at Gulfstream in February, and who is trained by Chad Brown, who seems to win every other race on the grass these days. But we are going longshot hunting in here, and our pick is 8-Avigale. This is the first North American start for this Irish-bred trained by Jeff Mullins. In his last start, which was at Dundalk in Ireland in February, he finished second in a maiden race. This would normally not be that big a deal, but he beat 13 other horses in that race, which suggests the colt has some ability. Now moving across the pond and switching to turf, we think he's primed for a big effort here at a big price. We will bet him to win at 12-1. The bet: Keeneland, Race 6, $20 to win on 8-Avigale.

Race 8 at Keeneland goes off at 4:57 pm Eastern, and this is the kind of race that makes Keeneland such a great track to play, especially during the week: it's a third-level allowance for older horses at a mile and a half on the grass. 12 are entered here, and these horses are coming from all over, having raced previously at many different tracks, different distances, and even on different racing surfaces (there are horses in here whose last starts were on turf, dirt, and synthetic). In addition, the distance is a wild card: though the world over, 12 furlongs on the grass is the definitive test for the Thoroughbred, these races are carded infrequently in the U.S., especially at this level. Figuring out which of these horses will be able to get this distance is one of the reasons this is a real handicapper's race.

We like the outside horse in here, 12-Sarrasin. Most of the runners in here look like they want no part of the distance, but for this 7-year-old, it looks like it's just want the doctor ordered: he's 2-for-3 lifetime at this distance,and he's trained by top turf conditioner Christophe Clement. There probably will not be much pace in this race, which is not surprising given the distance, but we think this guy can settle in mid-pack, and then make a strong move coming for home. We will bet him to win at 7/2. The bet: Keeneland, Race 8, $30 to win on 12-Sarrasin.

At Tampa, Race 7 (post time: 3:57 pm Eastern) is a Maiden Special for 3-year-olds at a mile on the dirt. There's a good field of good-looking young horses in here, including a few who have run well recently. But we are looking to a first-time starter, and that is 1-Mountain Holiday. He comes from a high-percentage barn, both overall and with firsters, and he gets the coveted inside post at Tampa's two-turn mile distance. He's got a long and steady workout pattern, suggesting that he's fit and ready, and we think he fits here. We will bet him at 5-1. The bet: Tampa Bay Downs, Race 7, $20 to win on 1-Mountain Holiday.

At Mahoning Valley in Ohio, the 6th (post time: 3:04 pm) is a $5,000 claimer for horses 3 and older at 6 furlongs on the dirt. There's a standout here, and it's 3-Machinist. This horse just missed at this level last out, finishing second. His Beyer speed figures are superior to his rivals, and he has tactical speed, and those two together add up to a trip to the winner's circle. We will bet him to win at 8/5. The bet: Mahoning Valley, Race 6, $25 to win on 3-Machinist.

That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.