Post time is 12:55 pm
Springtime should be about rebirth and trying new things. As most of you have noticed, Mick is, by nature, a vertical bettor, going deep in individual races and not messing with the horizontal or multi-race wagers. Obviously, this can work very well, as it did on Saturday with several payoffs resulting from including multiple horses in Exactas and hoping for and getting a longer shot on top. Going forward, Mick will be expanding on the verticals but adding some horizontal plays as well since many tracks are encouraging horizontal play by increasing options and reducing take outs. One warning about horizontal plays -- they usually only make sense once the pools grow sufficiently to justify the level of participation required. That means, investing hundreds of dollars to go after a thousand dollar pick six does not provide sufficient reward for the risk. Therefore, Mick will be reserving his Horizontal action for days and cards that justify it.
Picks for April 15, 2019:
Rain overnight but clearing before race time should lead to a wet dirt track. The humidity and possibility of showers all morning will not help. Expect sloppy and/or sticky. The wind may be the bigger issue although it should fade as the day goes by.
Parx Race 1
Maidens at this level are always tough and the addition of three first time starters just makes it that much tougher. 7-Vixsinsfantastkfox has the experience advantage here but that is seldom worthwhile for maidens since it says more about their incompetence than anything else. Still, he ticks most of the boxes including top jockey and trainer, decent off track pedigree, and a drop in class. The obvious challenger, 6-Ace Nine Nine is from a dynamite family and comes with top connections. The concern is the vet scratch for this one at this level last month. The March 30 work was after the scratch and was solid so why not get back to a race before now? Throwing 3-Artyouglad into the mix makes sense for no other reason than the lack of quality elsewhere.
$10 W/P/S 7-Vixsinsfantastkfox
$2 Exacta box 3,6,7
$1 Trifecta box 3,6,7
Parx Race 2
A very evenly matched group of seven in this one with some very interesting angles. The first angle to examine is home field advantage. Several of these run much better at Parx than elsewhere. Whether that is due to the track or an aversion to the van, it doesn’t matter to us. 5-Midnight Bounty likes Parx, is second off the claim for a 35% barn and goes back to a route after a sprint effort last out. Off going is not her friend but she should be in the top three. 3-Moon Shock is much the same but this one is coming off a freshening following a poor effort out of town in February. The race pattern is a concern but the form in the fall was solid. Lastly, there is 6-Majestic Bloom, a useful one returning to an appropriate level following two attempts against better. She should be the early speed but running into the wind today could be tough.
$10 W/P/S 5-Midnight Bounty
$2 Exacta box 3,5,6
$1 Trifecta Box 3,5,6
Mick’s Quick Picks
Parx Race 3: 2-Refunded is the obvious play on tax day and the obvious play here IF the track dries out by race time. Mick doesn’t see that happening nor does 4-American Greatness make sense without the return of Mychel Sanchez in the saddle. Instead look for a price with 7-Lucky Clemen. Everybody needs a little luck on tax day . . . right?
Parx Race 5: If 8-Da Wildcat Girl can rein in her exuberance just a bit, she should be tough in here. You know her best running is outside and on a sealed track that may be the best lane.