Maiden Thursday In The Bluegrass State
Gorgeous Spring Day in Lexington, Sunny and 83̊
Musings:
Jeopardy James Update: Our John Nash of Pro Sports Betting, Mr. Cool Hand Luke himself (already running out of hyperbole) had a down day Thursday - $54.3K in winnings and a 5 day total of $298K. Stay tuned
Who will be donning the green jacket in the Butler Cabin Sunday? I took lefty at 45-1. Why not? Nicklaus won it in 1986 at 46 years of age…which if you were of age awareness, where were you? Throwing back more than my fair share while perched on a bar stool at the old Midway airport, I watched in amazement as Jack sunk the eagle putt on 15. When he got up to 16 and put the tee shot in spittin’ distance from the hole, the Mrs. walked up and said that the plane was boarding. Not answering, she looked me up and down and said…”see you in Minneapolis…whenever.” Just moments later, the guy from New Jersey sitting shoulder to shoulder with me had his wife say the same. He looked at her and told her in no uncertain terms that he was leaving. Suffice to say that she wasn’t near as gracious as Mrs, RT and while he did stay, the thought of what his homecoming was like, has stuck with.
Yesterday I chose She’s Pretty Lucky at Keeneland 7. She again did not get a favorable trip having to slow when cut off in the stretch, only to regather and get up for 3rd. Put her in your virtual stable. Her PP’s will not reflect the trouble she had this time and last.
Keeneland Race 2
$79K MSW 7f 3yo+
The Skinny:
E Base Par - 90
Pace – 1-2-3-4 at the ¼ call, 2-3-4 battling when nearing the stretch turn
7-My Cadet (8/1) will press behind the pace and close out. Colt out of Paynter (11:4-4-0, $1.1M), gets 2nd time Lasix and a positive jockey change to Kent Desormeaux where the outside post fits his riding style. Ran an E speed of 73 vs a 93 par and 2nd time starters at this level are typically worth a 15-20% pickup. 6f work recently connotes trainer intent.
3-Sandville (5/2) outran his par last out going 94/92 and got hung in traffic to close late getting up for 3rd by 2.75 lengths. McPeek debuted this fella on the turf at 1 mile, then 3, at 1&1/16th’s distances, the last at 6f and today at 7. His style, training and retention of Jockey Hernandez, appears to be in the right spot here.
4-Into The Breach (7/2) owner Flagler, being Henry V in this spot, dumps his Falstaff (Kiaran McLaughlin), hires a Fluellen (Michael Dilger) and they head out to Agincourt today, uh, Keeneland. Runner out of Holy Bull gets Johnny V, has been working steadily and in improved fashion and should figure ITM.
Keeneland Race 2 Bets
$10/w, $20/p 3
$2 Exacta 3-7-4
$1 Tri 4-3/4-3-2/7, 4-3/7/7-3-2, 7/4-3/4-3-2
Keeneland Race 5
$30K MCL 3yo+ 6f
The Skinny:
E Base Par – 77
Pace 4-6-5 at ¼ call with 1-4-12-13-10 pressing. Hitting the near turn, 6 drew clear while 1-4-5-12-7 in pursuit.
12-Kamacha (15/1) usually this large of a maiden field can lead to a long shot showing up and Kamacha is a likely contender. Rounding into shape, this 1st time runner after gelded was a very game 2nd last out whilst outrunning par getting a 73/69. Will see improvement today.
5-Komrad (7/2) makes a positive ROI move, beaten fave/jockey switch, 24%, lightly raced 4yo got collared at the wire last out to run 2nd. Ships in from OP, gets Luis Saez (27% last 30 days) and poses a solid threat.
3-Ruling Empire (12/1) ran an abhorrent race his first and only time on turf, this Scat Daddy gelding has been on the bench since September. Following his “ultimate equipment change” in the fall, he has been on the training track breezing three bullet works in a row. Ownership dumped Wesley Ward in favor of Conor Murphy who is deft with 6+ month layoff runners – 25%
2-Wilderness Gate (4-1) returning to mcl today, Wilderness was bumped at the break last out in the slop and Lanerie did his best to get him in position. The surface was not to his liking and he fought, then tired. Lanerie retains the mount, has three solid works and fits this class/distance
Keeneland Race 5 Bets
$10/w $20/p 12
$2 Exacta Box 12-5-2
$1 Tri 5-2/5-2-3/12, 5-2/12/5-2-3
Keeneland Race 9
$79K MSW Turf 3yo 1 & 1/16th mile
The Skinny:
E Base Par – 92
Pace 1 in the lead at the ¼ call with 2-6-5-9 pressing. 1 stays on the lead in mid turn with 9-5-2-6 nearing
1-Rock On Kitten (6/1) if there is going to be a first gate to wire route win on turf this meet, Rock On may pull it off. Using a fundamental handicapping ism, betting a maiden who has shown jump (within 2 lengths of lead), while running at or above its last race par. This colt fits, running on the lead before tiring last and getting an 89/89 score. Given today’s par of 92 and noticing nobody else in this field has garnered that number, it leads me to think that Gafflione will get the lead and control the pace while closing out in the stretch
9-Exult (8/5) if anyone is going to catch the 1, this is it. Same principal as above, this Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz entry ran an 89/91 last time and has the off the pace style. He’s going to be bet into oblivion, probably below 1-1 odds and with good reason.
12-Cha Vez (10-1) 2nd out where he notched a 78/82 and showed grit in the stretch getting 4th by 3/4ths length, this Lemon Drop Kid colt gets 2nd Lasix and has a jockey/trainer tandem that fit a personal appeal – obscure with few mounts and entries, a so-so win % and is racing in a large field. Odd? Yes. Works? Sometimes. Why? Trainer wants more horses and jockey wants more mounts and they’re going to bomb it and go “once more into the breach.”
Keeneland Race 9 Bets
$20/w $40p 1
$ 1-9-12 exacta box and hope 9 isn’t first…