Thoroughbreds: Wednesday, RT offers two from Keeneland and a late race at Penn National
Happy Hump Day
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Musings:
If you haven’t seen him yet, DVR “Jeopardy!” and watch this kid, James Holzhauer. James is a professional sports bettor from Vegas, and he has the goods. Smart and donning a debonair and cool, stoic reserve, James has that unflappable demeanor of Lancy Howard in “The Cincinnati Kid.” An experienced, winning gambler, James is “all in” on most of his Double Jeopardy questions and always starts at the highest dollar amount and works up. The buzz? 4 days, $244K; including Tuesday’s new single game record of $114K. Catch it, he’s remarkable.
A title popped up today that read: ”Pletcher Works On Derby Contenders”
It smacked of Robert Loggia telling Al Pacino in “Scarface,” “never underestimate the greed of the other guy.” Yes, Baffert is loaded again, however, Pletcher has Cutting Humor and Spinoff, who, assuredly, will be ready on the first Saturday in May.
Underestimating Pletcher may prove calamitous
The next headline read: “Baffert: New $3.65M Curlin colt a ‘wow horse’.” My cynical self thought,”for $3.65M, it better be more than just a WOW.”
Two From Keeneland Sunny and 73̊. One from Penn National Clear and 47̊
Keeneland 1
$60K Maidens 2yo+ 4.5f
The Skinny:
6-Alec And Arthur (4/1) again, we have ½ of these young ones getting 3f works and nothing longer. Seemingly, if you train a new horse, out of the gate, to run three furlongs and then stop him, what will the first-time result be? Hmmm . . . that’s like teenage backseat action . . . fast, done and administering the best 22 seconds of her life
Alec & Arthur was breezed 4f out of the gate in :48.8 on March 19th, then 3f in :36.8 on March 31st and on April 6th, he jumped back into the gate and bombed 4f in :47 flat…improving his previous gate/distance work by 1.8 seconds or, as best as my Jethro Bodine ciphering can naught naught figgur, 12 lengths. The dam has 4 foals and a 15% win rate and the sire 19%. He’ll be there
2-Johnny Unleashed (6/1) this is the skin-in-the-game pick -- with beef. Trainer Eric Foster is the owner of Johnny as well and paid ten dimes for this guy. Eric has a first time starter record of 20% winners and his jockey, Miguel Mena, has had a pick up in wins the last ten days. Johnny worked 4f from the gate in :48 and this is its dams’ first foal and the sires’ foals have a 14% win rate.
8-Karaoke Night (8/1) my Filipina ex-wife would be the first to the window to bet this colt. Karaoke was so wildly popular with her friends that she bought her own gizmo. Hence the divorce ”I lost my wife to karaoke” You can just hear George Jones belting that.
This guy is a good play -- four gate works from four furlongs, dam 19% winners and a trainer, Travis Short, getting 33% winners with firsters.
4- Merchants Of Cool (5/2) of course we have to put a Wesley Ward newbie in here. This guy does have the goods -- 3f, going :36.2, :35.6 (gate) and :36 his last three.
Keeneland Race 1 Bets
$10/w & $20/p #6
$2 Exacta Box 6-2-8
$1 Trifecta 2-4/2-4-8/6, 2-4/6/2-4-8, 6/2-4/2-4-8
Keeneland Race 7
$87K Allowance on Turf 1 Mile 4yo+ F&M NW4 other than maiden, claiming or state bred
2-Cartabianca (5/1) it’s not every day you get a French horse with a Spanish name which translates in English to White Letter. Hey, it’s not our nickel to pay for it and they have a live wire here that was shipped to Lexington to show her mettle. The things attractive about Carta are – six works since arriving with a steady progression of improvement; including her last of 4f in :46.8 bg -- alerting the notion that she has grown comfortable and happy in her surroundings. Since it’s banned in Europe, she gets first Lasix. For an experienced horse and the Lasix addition, she should move almost as fast as Julian Assange will this week when the Policia Metropolitana de Guayaquil circle their embassy. Flavian Pratt aboard. Her last year’s record was 10:4-1-1, and draws the inside post, which is the current bias for Keeneland turf. Thus far in the meet on turf, there have been zero gate to wire wins in routes, so as with most European horses, coming off the pace is common. Since I am ranting about this across the pond bent, if Almond Eye meets Enable in the Arc, count this guy in at Longchamps.
8-Dynatail (4-1) there is enough speed in this race to favor a late knocker like Dyna. This will be her first race since October and she has been working forwardly for this. Trainer Dini hits 20% winners with a layoff of 2-6 months and gets Luis Saez, her normal rider, up today.
1-She’s Pretty Lucky (8-1) try as he may last out, Junior Ortiz just couldn’t find the spot to get through. Junior had mucho mucho horse under him and got trapped, then checked at the 8th and 16th pole, before giving up the ghost when he realized it wasn’t meant to be. If you have the means to watch it, do. She’s the 8. When asked to run at the beginning of the stretch drive, she had afterburners. Impressive. Again, there will be speed in this race and new jock Tyler Gafflione, along with a rail spot, should do a blitzkrieg.
Keeneland Race 7 Bets
$20/w $40/p – 1
$2 Exacta Box 2-8-1
$1 Tri 2-8/2-8-3/1, 2-8/1/2-8-3, ½-8/2-8-3
Penn National Race 8
This race is selected for one reason – there are two entrants that come out of positive key races.
9-Tin N Lint (3/1)
7-Atlantis Romance (10/1)
The nod goes to Atlantis Romance -- gets blinkers today, her numbers have been closely competitive with the rest and she gets a positive jockey change to William Otero.
Tin N Lint is trained by white hot Kathleen DeMasi (last 30, 34%) and equally on fire, Edwin Gonzalez (last 30, 39%)
Usually, toward the end of the card at Penn, races like this can be profitable. You have a couple of key race horses facing two speed types who will be faves.
Penn National Race 8 Bets
$10/w $20p #7
Exacta Box 4-9-7
Trifecta 9-7/9-7-2/4, 9-7/4/9-7-2, 4/9-7/9-7-2