Thoroughbreds: Tuesday’s first three races at Mahoning Valley with RT and his handicapping student

Mahoning Valley April 9, 2019
Sunny and 64̊

Three weeks ago, I received an email from a wonderful young man in Delaware asking if I would be interested in teaching him how to handicap. I asked him to call and after speaking for a brief time, I agreed. In three weeks, he has evolved into quite the handicapper. This our email exchange last night. My comments are italicized

Mahoning Valley Race 1
I’m most likely not betting that one. 1,2,6 look like contenders. #4 has an interesting pattern. #4 will have a terrible race flashing some early speed and then next race out runs much better. Looks like he should fire this race but I don’t think it will be good enough.

Skeptical of 6, Gemlover...why does it race back to this level after dropping from Alw? 1-1 odds are not enticing either..also, the big win last out...that good or the others gave up? Trainer only 7% wins after a win

4, Power Pop looks of interest...quasi-eased last out, jockey gets 14% winners and gets 20% winners with this trainer. Bounce pattern suggests positive outing

1, Purdy Birdie may be worth a shot....personally, would fire jockey after having horse ready and he couldn't score the win. Maybe just a seconditis horse and put in exotics

5, Wicked Love gets stud jock back for 2nd look. Somewhat class dropper. ran evenly and comes right back after a week

Mahoning Valley Race 1 Bets
w/p on the 5
4-1-5/6 exacta
trifecta 4-1/4-1-6/5, 4-1/5/4-1-6, 5/4-1/4-1-6

Mahoning Valley Race 2

Looks like there is some speed in this one and could set up for a stalker or closer. I think 2,4,5 will battle for the lead. 3 will be stalking and 1,6 will be sitting back. If the pace melts down I think 3 will win. 2 looks to be at his level and may have enough left to be in the money. 1 and 6 will be closing.

My bets: Ex 3/1,2,4,6

1, John Paul Jones - claim from Mike Maker barn in Nov for $7.5K original price was $75K. Trainer clipping at 33% with <7 days between

1a Checkwithme - will more than likely scratch

2 King’s Revenge - shipped from Houston, no works, speed horse. Will set pace and fade

3 Soby Jr - has seconditis...21 outs, 1 win. Keep for excata/tri

4 Greeley’s Arch looks like the one to beat. Jockey Quinones, 28% last 10 days. 3rd gelding, will set the pace at the far turn and close out the race

Leaves 6 First Shot...based upon money earned this year

Like 6 - 2nd off claim, trainer gets 33% wins after a win.

7 in exotics. Hot trainer - 25% last 30, jockey, 20%. claim from Mike Maker. Shipped from TUP and they do not fare well the first time

Mahoning Valley Race 2 Bets
win/place on the 4
Exacta 4-3-6
Tri - 6-1/6-1-3/4, 6-1/4/6-1-3, 4/6-1/6-1-3
Superfecta Box 6-1-4-3

Mahoning Valley Race 3

There is just something about this #1 that jumps out to me. He is dropping from MSW to MC (not sure how Mountaineer compares to Mahoning). He drops in distance from 1m to 5.5 f and has been in the $ his last 3 out. He gets the same jockey as last out in which he ran 2nd and if you look back to Nov 24 and Oct 8 of last year at the MC 15000 he has the top figure in this group (from my DRF). The #2 looks good and is shipping from Gulfstream and is improving. He will be tough to beat. Don’t like the #3 much. #4 looks good and is improving with a strong recent workout. #5 is a first time starter ?. #6 is carrying 16lbs more and hasn’t showed much. #7 is improving and had a strong move last race. He is the only one in the group to race at Mahoning 2 starts 1 second.

My bets: Ex Box 1,2,7.
Win and Place on #1.

1, Eastern Pride is a no go for me. Cutting back is not a good sign even if he is a speed horse. Additionally, his works are short distanced (good for this occurrence) and pedestrian in time. Not good.

7 Gentle Kiss is the play - Outran its par last out and closed like a locomotive. Turns back from 6 to 5.5 furlongs, a distance that this horse has been trained to run. Lightly raced and is in good condition

The danger is the 2, Mama Lela. Watched a race today where I claimed the favorite was false and it won....my horse almost clipped him at the wire. Similar circumstance with shipper from GS. A $12.5K mcl at GS is a lot tougher than a $15K claimer on the Ohio Plains.

Mahoning Valley Race 3 Bets
wp/ on the 7
exacta box 7/2