Thoroughbreds: Garrity’s Saturday stakes picks are at Aqueduct (The Wood), Keeneland (the Blue Grass) and Santa Anita (the Derby) & more
It's a big day today. If you're reading this, you probably know why: by bedtime tonight, the Kentucky Derby picture will be largely set, with the field largely determined, the favorites probably decided, and the anticipation for the first Saturday in May beginning to build.
There's a huge slate of stakes races today, all of them good, and because of that, we're going to get right down to business. Here's the lineup of races we have handicapped:
Aqueduct: Grade 2 Wood Memorial
Keeneland: Grade 1 Ashland, Grade 1 Madison, Grade 2 Blue Grass
Santa Anita: Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap
We should note here that the forecast is fine at all these tracks, and we're handicapping for fast dirt everywhere (our stakes lineup this week is an all-dirt affair). We'll also look at these out of order, with the Kentucky Derby preps first, and the other stakes after. With that out of the way, let's go.
We'll start with the Wood Memorial, which is a mile and an eighth on Aqueduct's main track. Post time is 6:00 p.m. Eleven 3-year-olds are entered. We like 10-Outshine. This Todd Pletcher trainee finished 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby to Tacitus, who's also entered here. But while Tacitus had a dream trip in that race, from both a pace and trip standpoint -- coming from off the pace in a race where the early pace was way too fast, and skimming the rail to do it -- Outshine had a much tougher trek: he was a lot closer to the suicidal early pace, and he had to go wide to chase down the tiring frontrunners. This was a big effort, and he should get a much better trip today, stalking what figures to be a much more moderate early pace. He's been firing bullets in his morning workouts, which suggests he's sitting on a big race today. We think he wins, and we will bet him to win at 6-1. The bet: Aqueduct, Race 10, $25 to win on 10-Outshine.
Over at Keeneland, they are running the 2019 edition of the Blue Grass Stakes, which goes off as Race 10, with a post time of 6:23 pm Eastern. 14 3-year-olds are entered to run nine furlongs on the main track.
We like the favorite in here, 2-Vekoma, at 9/5. Most of the runners here look too slow to win, and we dislike the other obvious contenders as well. We think Vekoma is ready to move forward off his third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth: We liked him in that race, and there's no reason to get off him now. It's not easy taking a 9/5 shot in a 14-horse field, but that's exactly what we will do: we'll bet Vekoma to win. The bet: Keeneland, Race 10, $25 to win on 2-Vekoma.
In California, the Santa Anita Derby, which is also at a mile and an eighth on the main track, goes off as Race 8 on the card, with a post time of 7:14 pm Eastern. A short field of six is entered, but we think you can safely ignore four of them, because the race comes down to the two outside horses, 5-Instagrand and 6-Game Winner.
Game Winner was a game second, losing by a nose, in the second division of the Rebel at Oaklawn Park. Instagrand is coming off a third-place finish in the Gotham at Aqueduct. Both of these were very good performances coming off layoffs, and we think both should improve today. It is hard for us to separate these two: we think they run 1-2 in some order, but because of the short field, we can't make this a betting race. We think that their win odds will both be very short, and the exacta payouts either way will be weak. Our official pick is Game Winner over Instagrand by a neck, after a thrilling stretch duel, but that pick is for entertainment purposes only, because we cannot wager on this race.
Back at Keeneland, the Grade 1 Madison is a 7-furlong dirt sprint for older females. It's race 8 on the card, with a post time of 5:10 pm Eastern. We like the outside horse here, 9-Shamrock Rose. Last year's winner of the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint tried going around two turns in the Azeri at Oaklawn last out, but a mile and a sixteenth was too far for her; she took the lead at the top of the stretch and finished 3rd. Now she's back to sprinting, where she probably belongs, and she has drawn the coveted outside post. We will bet her to win. The bet: Keeneland, Race 8, $25 to win on 9-Shamrock Rose.
The Grade 1 Ashland, which is for 3-year-old fillies at a mile and a sixteenth on the main track, goes off as Race 9 on the Keeneland card, with a post time of 5:45 pm. The headliner among the eight entrants is 8/5 morning line favorite 4-Jaywalking, the Parx-based winner of last year's Breeders Cup juvenile. Let's be blunt with this: we hate Jaywalking here, as we think she has not carried her 2-year-old form into this year. Her seasonal debut in the Davona Dale at Gulfstream Park was a fiasco; she finished off the board as the 1/5 favorite. We think she's going to burn a lot more money today.
We like the filly right outside her, 5-Feedback, and we like her a lot. Her 2019 seasonal debut, a win at 1/2 in the 7-furlong Forward Gal at Gulfstream, may appear to be less than overwhelming, but her effort that day was better than it looks on paper, as she stalked an honest pace on a racing surface that was biased against front-runners. We think that she will be better around two turns than she was around one, and drawing just outside Jaywalking is the absolutely perfect spot for her. We like her -- no, we love her -- to beat Jaywalking, and we will bet her to win. The bet: Keeneland, Race 9, $40 to win on 5-Feedback.
The other two stakes races we've handicapped at Santa Anita are the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. These are races 3 and 10 on the card at Santa Anita. Post times are 4:00 pm and 8:20 pm, Eastern, respectively.
The Oaks is for 3-year-old fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. A field of five is entered. The standout here is the outside horse, 5-Bellafina, who has won five of her last six starts, with the lone loss in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she finished 4th as the 9-5 favorite. The other four runners appear to be entered in the hope of getting a Grade 1 placing; none appears to be able to run with Bellafina. Sit back and watch a special filly win this race, but don't bet it, because she will be 1/9, and it looks like she will have to fall down to lose.
The venerable Santa Anita Handicap also drew a short field, with only six runners. The headliners here are 4/5 morning-line favorite, 1-McKinzie, who won the Malibu on opening day at Santa Anita the day after Christmas, and more recently finished second in the slop in the San Pasqual.
McKinzie is a deserving favorite, but our pick is 4-Gift Box. Despite the short field, we think there is going to be a fast pace, as 3-Prime Attraction really only knows one way, which is to go to the front, and we think McKinzie will be close to him. This will set the race up for Gift Box's powerful stretch run. We see Prime Attraction setting the pace, McKinzie taking the lead at the top of the stretch, and Gift Box getting up to beat McKinzie very late. We will bet Gift Box to win. The bet: Santa Anita Park, Race 10, $25 to win on 4-Gift Box.
That's all for today. Good luck at the windows.